Can Technical Analysis Boost Portfolio Returns?

Categories: Equity Investments, Portfolio Management, Quantitative Methods
Can Technical Analysis Boost Portfolio Returns?

A recent white paper authored by David Smith, Christophe Faugère, and Ying Wang, entitled, Head and Shoulders above the Rest? The Performance of Institutional Portfolio Managers who Use Technical Analysis, may help to change the way technical analysis is thought of in the world of asset management. In a broad-based study examining two decades worth of returns, the authors found that fund managers who employed technical analysis, which relies on the study of price and volume data to predict the future direction of stocks and other financial instruments, delivered higher returns than those who did not.

Technical analysis has long been treated with a certain degree of scorn — or at least skepticism — by the stock market cognoscenti. Perhaps it is the suggestion implicit in technical analysis that something other than rigorous fundamental analysis is behind all the buying and selling. “Chartists,” as they are known, see asset prices as a function of supply and demand, and while technical analysts generally agree with the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) insofar as markets quickly reflect all available information, it is at this point that the disciplines part ways. Technicians believe that price patterns tend to repeat over time and, as a result, are somewhat predictable. The repetitive behavior of markets is a result of the irrationality of investors. This irrationality mainfests itself in behavioral biases that are, in the view of technicians, exploitable.

Past studies of the efficacy of technical analysis came to a range of conclusions and no firm consensus. Eugene Fama and Marshall Blume, in Filter Rules and Stock Market Trading (1966), found that technical analysis did not beat simple buy-and-hold strategies after transaction costs. More recent studies, including a paper by William Brock, Josef Lakonishok, and Blake LeBaron entitled Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns (1991), suggest some benefit from trading on technical indicators, including moving averages and trading range breaks.

Smith, Faugère, and Wang — all professors at the School of Business at the State University of New York at Albany — take a different, more holistic approach than prior studies. Rather than testing individual technical trading rules, they simply relied on portfolio managers’ assertions about whether or not, and to what extent, they employed technical analysis in their investment process. The authors’ sample includes 10,452 actively managed US equity, global equity, US balanced, and global balanced portfolios. They find that technical analysis was utilized to some degree by about one-third of the managers surveyed, with US equity fund managers the most avid users and US balanced fund managers the least frequent users. There were no notable differences in the use of technical analysis by market capitalization of holdings.

Examining performance between 1993 and 2012, the authors considered several different performance metrics and found mean and median alpha values, as well as volatility, to be consistently higher for those funds using technical analysis. They conclude:

“[The] cross-section of portfolios managed using technical analysis shows remarkably elevated skewness and kurtosis values relative to portfolios that do not use technical analysis. In the presence of the former, the latter can be advantageous.”

While the paper suggests that technical analysis may indeed boost portfolio returns, it is not clear whether it also extends careers. Over the course of their study, the authors found that 55% of those disavowing the use of charts were still in business, while only 48% of those managers who rated technical analysis as “very important” had survived. Although the authors convincingly demonstrate that fund managers might enhance their portfolios’ performance through the use of technical analysis, they don’t tell us which trading rules are most effective. And for those who have successfully employed technical analysis, the incentives to divulge their “secret sauce” are few.


Please note that the content of this site should not be construed as investment advice, nor do the opinions expressed necessarily reflect the views of CFA Institute.

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8 comments on “Can Technical Analysis Boost Portfolio Returns?

  1. Esosa Eden said:

    “While the paper suggests that technical analysis (TA) may indeed boost portfolio returns, it is not clear whether it also extends careers.”
    I guess this is the crust of the associated value.(Is it just risky or is it completely uncertain and if so what is completely certain?)
    I was told by one of my professors that TA is Voodoo finance, and yet by another two (Profs) that it is what you have to know now to remain in Business.
    Well i ,d to thank you for sharing this information,even though my fingers remain crossed.
    Cheers

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  3. Technical Analysis is in it’s simplest terms a historical record of price and investor sentiment. Just the analysis of any trend will provides into into the future direction, so to will TA of market trends. I have many times seen shares that have great fundamentals and good P/E ratios that should suggest a good investment option. However the historic price momentum trend tells another story with prices moving down. If one understands “how” to read the nuances of price momentum and consolidation phases, then you can use this momentum to project the continuing price movement.

  4. Hermann Zon said:

    John,
    Can you provide me with a web site where I can get your Book. I’m an ivorian and I’m not sure I can get this Book in our Book shops. Côte d’ivoire is an african french speaking country as well!!!
    Hope to ear from you very soon!

  5. I think the efficacy of technical analysis comes and goes. My father invented the money-flow concept in the early 1960s. In the 1970s and early 1980s, he probably had the best market timing service in the world. But, technical analysis turned out to be the “hook” at the career making or breaking 1982 bottom. Joe Granville called it the immaculate conception as technical analysis missed the bottom. In my opinion, the use of analogies is currently one of the best predictors of future prices. I think technical analysis will be king again. Just not today.

  6. cem cakim said:

    My own experience in the Technical Analysis as a tool for investment and portfolio management has been quite an adventure for my success ratio when selecting and investing in the stock via technical analysis was %75 while the returns varied from 20% to 50% on average on yearly basis and depending on the stock itself, without margin. And one needs consistency in the method applied when selecting a stock. It requires a successful back testing before implementing it with limited capital first and when the results come, increasing the capital. Proper money management techniques are to be applied rigorously with stop-loss levels as well as entry/exit levels for any given stock.

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