Poll: Will the Global Economy Experience a Recession in the Next 12 Months?

“Nobody’s going to their bosses saying, ‘Give me a raise or else,’ because they are terrified that their bosses will say ‘or else,'” Scott Hoyt wrote in the Los Angeles Times. Growth hasn’t been strong enough to fully support the labor market, and unemployment has remained stubbornly high. US gross domestic product growth was barely positive in the first quarter, coming in at 0.1%.

In China, GDP growth continued slowing to 7.4%, which is markedly lower than in previous years. Although the data coming out of China are often questionable, copper prices remain some 30% below their all-time highs, confirming that the world’s largest consumer of copper is slowing. Japan, perhaps the only bright spot, recorded growth of 5.9% in the quarter. However, this bright spot was tainted by the fact that Japanese consumers were likely time-shifting future purchases into the present to beat a retail sales tax hike from 5% to 8%, which went into effect April 1.

Because we are mid- to late cycle, market commentators have begun to wonder whether this sluggish data mean that we are heading into recession. We asked Financial NewsBrief readers what they thought about the likelihood of recession in the next 12 months.

Given recently mixed signals regarding its health, how likely is it that the global economy will experience a recession in the next 12 months?

Around 22% thought that it was likely or highly likely that global GDP would enter recession territory. Nearly two-thirds of respondents felt that it was unlikely or highly unlikely. The remaining 12% of respondents had no opinion.

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