Weekend Reads for Global Investors: Investment Gurus Debate the Markets
Alas, it seems global stock markets have all caught a fever. Major indices in Asia, Europe, and the United States reached new highs over the last month and are mostly still hovering within a few percentage points. Even the NASDAQ has topped the record it set in the internet bubble era. Notably, the bull market in the United States has already become the third longest in its history.
Market direction, US Federal Reserve action, and Warren Buffett’s investment skills were some of the topics that came up at a major hedge fund conference this week, Michael Novogratz, principal of Fortress Investment Group, caught everyone’s attention, saying, “We’ve Already Seen the Beginning of the Quake That Could Be Coming.” He is watching labor inflation as an indicator that could prompt the Fed into action. Peter Schiff, CEO and chief global strategist at Euro Pacific Capital, disagrees. According to Schiff, rather than a Fed rate hike, we’re heading for QE4! You know what people say, it takes two to make a market.
Another market investors have been watching anxiously is oil. Prices have made quite a comeback from the lows reached in the first quarter of this year. Will the trend continue? Or are we on the verge of another down leg in this bear market? Analysts and traders seem to be skeptical of the bull market scenario. Some even went so far as to predict that oil prices will be back down to the $30s. Looks like oil will remain a trader’s market for as far as the eye can see. Long-term investors such as Berkshire Hathaway have been selling some stocks and buying a few others in this sector.
Emerging markets is another one to watch, and for good reason. Forbes has just published its Global 2000 in 2015, a list of the world’s largest public companies. This year China has taken the top four spots for the first time and contributed 232 companies to the list, second only to the United States and surpassing Japan for the first time. France was edged out by South Korea for the fifth spot. Argentina and Cyprus joined the list for the first time. So there is no shortage of excitement.
Figuring out where emerging market stocks are headed is another question. Some analysts argue that funds are flowing back into emerging markets, while others are concerned about another round of “taper tantrums.” Meanwhile, Mark Mobius, the emerging markets investment guru, thinks the rally in emerging markets will continue despite concerns about the Chinese market, which has fueled the outperformance of emerging markets this year.
Below is a full list of links from the paragraphs above and some of the other interesting reads I have come across in recent weeks. Happy reading and enjoy the weekend.
Markets
- “Bull Market Is 3rd Longest in US History” (CNNMoney)
- “Novogratz: ‘We’ve Already Seen the Beginning of the Quake That Could Be Coming’” (Business Insider)
- “Peter Schiff: We’re not Headed for a Fed Rate Hike — We’re Headed for QE4 Instead!” (Business Insider)
- “Oil’s Bull Run Hides a Deep Disconnect, Crude Traders Warn” (Reuters)
- “Opinion: Oil in the $30s? It May Happen as a ‘Short Squeeze’ Ends” (MarketWatch)
- “Warren Buffett Boosts Suncor Energy Inc Holdings, Dumps US$3.7 Billion Exxon Mobil Stake” (Financial Post)
Investing
- Who said bonds are less risky investments? “German-Bond Investors Just Lost 25 Years of Yield in 14 Days” (Bloomberg)
- If you are looking for a risky bond investment idea, check this out: “DoubleLine’s Gundlach Recommends Buying Puerto Rico Munis” (Reuters)
- “Should I Let a Robo-Advisor Manage My Investments or Do It Myself?” (Lifehacker)
- We often write about Warren Buffett’s wisdom. That doesn’t mean he’s perfect. Today we are including a more skeptical view of his success. That doesn’t mean we think any less of him either. “Dan Loeb Bashes Warren Buffett at Hedge Fund Conference” (Fortune)
- For those of you following the elections in the United Kingdom and wondering how it might affect your nest egg, this is worth a read: “The Funds to Buy If You’re Terrified of a Labour Victory” (FE Trustnet)
Emerging Markets
- “Mobius: Investors Have Not Missed the Emerging Markets Rally” (FE Trustnet)
- Funds are flowing back into emerging markets: “Is the EM Rally Just Getting Started?” (CNBC)
- Or are they? “Fed Triggers Bank Flight from Emerging Markets” (Bloomberg View)
- “Why Globalisation is Failing, and What to Do about It” (Forbes India)
- “The World’s Largest Companies 2015” (Forbes)
Ethics
- “Ethics and Finance — Aligning Financial Incentives with Societal Objectives” (International Monetary Fund (IMF))
- “Yellen Says Fed Has Made Progress in Changing Bank Culture” (MarketWatch)
The Soft Side of Business
- “How Does Warren Buffett Cultivate New Leaders?” (Fortune)
- “Get in the Right State of Mind for Any Negotiation” (Harvard Business Review)
- “The Real Reasons Your Team Is Not Engaged” (Forbes)
- “Networking When You Hate Talking to Strangers” (Harvard Business Review)
And Now for Some Reading Truly for the Weekend . . .
- I am not saying that you should try this, but apparently freediving can help improve decision-making. (Farnam Street)
- “Go Ahead, Fake Your Way through the 80-Hour Work Week” (Bloomberg)
- “9 Things You Can Do to Live a Happier Life, According to Science.” The second thing you don’t even have to “do.” (POPSUGAR)
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All posts are the opinion of the author. As such, they should not be construed as investment advice, nor do the opinions expressed necessarily reflect the views of CFA Institute or the author’s employer.
Image credit: ©iStockphoto.com/JLGutierrez
I appreciate your weekend reads, but it would be nice if the links opened in a new tab/window rather than closing the current page. Could you fix that?