Fixed Income

170 Posts

Connecting the Dots: From US Shale Oil to London Real Estate

Connecting the Dots: From US Shale Oil to London Real Estate

What do the U.S. shale oil play and London real estate have in common? A lot, it turns out. And if oil prices keep falling, the London (and for that matter Paris) property bubble(s) will burst. So, if you want to avoid the carnage or short real estate bubbles, builders, or banks in Europe, focus on the US energy sector and OPEC. Many investors are blinded by too narrow a focus, something I call micro-macro bias. Read more

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Turning Points: The Status Quo Is Changing

Turning Points: The Status Quo Is Changing

The status quo is changing markedly. Oil prices are heading south as the United States ramps up production and OPEC refuses to cut to compensate. Moreover, global demand is looking sluggish with weakening growth in Europe, Japan, and China. The weakening of Chinese demand suggests that there could be a regime change taking place whereby the global driver of commodity demand is declining at precisely the moment when the expansion of global supplies is finally arriving. Read more

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