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Weekend Reads for Investors: The Super Bowl Indicator

Weekend Reads

This weekend approximately half of US households will be watching the Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks compete in the 48th edition of the National Football League’s Super Bowl. It is typically a time when stock market observers cast seriousness aside and consider what the game’s outcome will mean for equity prices by examining the Super Bowl Indicator. First proposed in 1978, this theory holds that stocks will rise in the coming year if an original NFL franchise wins, but will fall if an old AFL team wins. Read more

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Historical Perspective: How Today’s US Stock Market Stacks Up against Past Bull Markets

As the bull market for US stocks approaches its fifth anniversary, we are starting to see signs typically associated with the latter stages of a multi-year advance in equities. Bearish sentiment, widely seen as a contrarian indicator, has dropped to levels not seen in a generation, retail investors are returning to stocks, and the IPO market has been surging. As further evidence, in the name of innovation, Wall Street is once again rolling out risky products that are almost certain to disappoint the unwitting buyer. Read more

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Weekend Reads for Investors: Tryptophan Edition

Weekend Reads

US investors are celebrating Thanksgiving this week, and the soaring stock market continues to serve nothing but humble pie to the thinning ranks of market bears. Hedge fund manager Hugh Hendry was the latest high profile investor to capitulate, recently advising, “I may be providing a public utility here, as the last bear to capitulate. You are well within your rights to say ‘sell.’” Indeed, we may see cautious investors look to secure some of their gains in the closing weeks of the year, but the trend for now remains positive. Read more

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