55 Posts

Weekend Reads for Investors: The Super Bowl Indicator

Weekend Reads

This weekend approximately half of US households will be watching the Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks compete in the 48th edition of the National Football League’s Super Bowl. It is typically a time when stock market observers cast seriousness aside and consider what the game’s outcome will mean for equity prices by examining the Super Bowl Indicator. First proposed in 1978, this theory holds that stocks will rise in the coming year if an original NFL franchise wins, but will fall if an old AFL team wins. Read more

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Weekend Reads for Investors: Fama, Forecasts, and the CAPE Debate

Weekend Reads

Perhaps not surprisingly, global equity markets have gotten off to a rather sluggish start in 2014. Emerging market stocks continue to lag while European markets, up slightly, lead developed markets. In the US, stocks have met little resistance since experiencing a 19% correction in the summer of 2011. Since World War II, US stocks have seen 10% corrections, on average, every 18 months. This may be cause for concern for some investors. And with valuation multiples stretched, corporate earnings are also undoubtedly on the minds of investors. Read more

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Best of 2013: Taking Stock of Equities

Best of 2013

As 2013 comes to a close, we took a look back at, and highlight below, some of the stories that captured the attention of investors and helped to set the trend for global equity markets over the past 12 months. With the notable exception of emerging markets, it was (as of this writing) a year of impressive gains for most major stock markets, particularly in light of what has been a persistently sluggish economic backdrop. Read more

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Weekend Reads for Investors: Madoff, Montier, and Marks

Weekend Reads

Five years ago, Bernie Madoff’s Ponzi scheme was uncovered and he was arrested and charged with criminal securities fraud. Months later he pled guilty and was sentenced to 150 years in prison. The Wall Street Journal’s interview with Madoff earlier this year reveals that five years behind bars has had little effect on Madoff’s remarkable arrogance and lack of contrition. Jason Zweig considers the recent boom in liquid alternative mutual funds to be the most ironic part of Madoff’s legacy. Read more


Historical Perspective: How Today’s US Stock Market Stacks Up against Past Bull Markets

As the bull market for US stocks approaches its fifth anniversary, we are starting to see signs typically associated with the latter stages of a multi-year advance in equities. Bearish sentiment, widely seen as a contrarian indicator, has dropped to levels not seen in a generation, retail investors are returning to stocks, and the IPO market has been surging. As further evidence, in the name of innovation, Wall Street is once again rolling out risky products that are almost certain to disappoint the unwitting buyer. Read more