share repurchases
Central bankers in the US have long fixated on the equilibrium real interest rate (ERIR) as their lodestar, an obsession that GMO’s James Montier, in The Idolatry of Interest Rates, bemoans as “a massive exercise in navel gazing.” According to Montier, the broad acceptance of the theoretically dubious ERIR — the real interest rate consistent with full employment of labor and capital resources—is not an example of the wisdom of crowds, but rather “groupthink extraordinaire.” Further, investors’ collective preoccupation with interest rates as an economic “cure-all” and their “deification of central bankers” are equally misguided, says Montier.
The burgeoning market for mergers is reflective of a lack of organic growth opportunities, cheap capital, and flush corporate coffers. Additionally, elevated stock prices provide buyers with a strong currency and sellers with a reason to cash in, which helps explain why M&A activity has tended to peak around market tops, most recently in 2007, and before that in 2000. So while the pace of deals may be a sign that CEOs and their boards are more confident about their prospects for growth, investors should be aware that their timing of late has been less than prescient. For those investors tempted to pick the next takeover target, the safer bet may be on the Wall Street bankers who are doing the matchmaking and financing. They always get paid.
It is our pleasure to introduce to CFA Institute readers the results of the European QuantAwards 2014 competition. We hope you enjoy the summaries of these three winning papers by their student authors, René-Jean Corneille, Rob Sperna Weiland, and Ulrik Zürcher.
It's perhaps not surprising that US corporations have taken advantage of historically low interest rates by issuing record amounts of debt. It's revealing, however, that companies are using the proceeds to buy back their shares with stock prices at all-time highs. According to S&P Capital IQ, US firms are repurchasing their shares at a pace not seen since 2007.
Oaktree Capital’s founder and chairman Howard Marks publishes periodic memos that are widely considered “must reads” for those in the investment industry, and his latest missive should be no exception. In ” READ MORE ›