Poll: What Are Your Expectations for the S&P 500 Over the Next 12 Months?
The average bull market since 1932 lasted about five years and delivered an average gain of 232%. Other studies suggest that the average bull market since 1871 has lasted approximately 5.6 years and delivered 178% in gains.
Today’s bull market has lasted six years and returned about 191%. In terms of duration and magnitude, today’s bull market is longer and larger than the average. It is tempting to assume that this bull market has run its course, but the historical record demonstrates otherwise. Three bull markets starting in 1949, 1975, and 1988 each lasted more than 12.5 years and returned about 440% (on average).
We asked CFA Institute Financial NewsBrief readers about their expectations for the S&P 500 index over the next 12 months.
Given that the S&P 500 is presently six years into a bull market, what is your expectation for the total return of the S&P 500 index over the next 12 months?
Of 1,078 respondents, nearly 87% believe that the S&P 500 will return between −10% and +20%. Only 3% of respondents expect a correction of −20% or less. Likewise, only 2% expect a return of more than 20%.
Using NewsBrief respondents as a proxy for the market, the market overwhelmingly expects the status quo to continue. Alpha can be created by identifying a turning point because it is apparently not yet priced in.
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All posts are the opinion of the author. As such, they should not be construed as investment advice, nor do the opinions expressed necessarily reflect the views of CFA Institute or the author’s employer.
