Practical analysis for investment professionals
21 April 2022

Geopolitical Shock: Regime Change in Inflation and Monetary Policy

Globalization is besieged on multiple fronts. Two years after the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic and amid growing geopolitical unrest, the decades-long disinflationary headwind has reversed. Many multinationals have taken steps to address the associated disruptions to their expansive and hyper-optimized but ultimately brittle global value chains.

These institutions are re-orienting their focus to prioritize availability over cost-optimization. This process manifests in three ways:

  1. Regionalization: moving supply chains closer to key markets.
  2. Nearshoring: shifting supply chains to neighboring centers of production.
  3. Reshoring: reversing, in part, the cost-saving offshoring of previous decades.
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Inflation is one key consequence of these shifting priorities. Reorganizing far-flung global manufacturing hubs into redundant regional supply chains demands increased capital investment and resource expenditures on everything from logistics to management. Such improvements cost money, and consumers will ultimately pay higher prices in return for more reliable supply chains.

Furthermore, the globalization process and the increasingly efficient resource allocation of the last several decades hinge on the geopolitical stability of the post–Cold War era. The collapse of the Soviet Union and China’s entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO) enabled cost-convergence between once-segmented commodity and labor markets. This created disinflationary pressure in the advanced economies. In retrospect, the Iron Curtain was a significant barrier that kept bountiful grain harvests and energy resources from developed economies.

Nevertheless, as cracks develop along geopolitical fault lines, new obstacles could emerge to disrupt global trade. The “peace dividend” of the last 30 years could erode further: Blockades, embargos, and conflict could create costly supply chain detours.

Tile for Puzzles of Inflation, Money, and Debt: Applying the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level

An Inflation “Paradigm Shift” Constrains Monetary Policy

Against the backdrop of the Russia–Ukraine conflict and prolonged pandemic-related disruptions, Agustín Carstens, the general manager of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), recognized that “structural factors that have kept inflation low in recent decades may wane as globalisation retreats.” He continued:

“Looking even further ahead, some of the structural disinflationary winds that have blown so intensely in recent decades may also be waning. In particular, there are signs that globalisation may be retreating. The pandemic, as well as changes in the geopolitical landscape, have already started to make firms rethink the risks involved in sprawling global value chains. And, regardless, the boost to global aggregate supply from the entry of some 1.6 billion workers from the former Soviet bloc, China and other EMEs into the effective global labor force may not be repeated on such a significant scale for a long time to come. Should the retreat from globalization gather pace, it could help restore some of the pricing power firms and workers lost over recent decades.”

Under Carstens’ framework, a paradigm shift on inflation is also a paradigm shift on monetary policy. The major central banks have had significant operational freedom to engage in unconventional monetary easing — money printing — thanks to globalization’s disinflationary effects. Renewed inflationary pressure could shift this dynamic into reverse. Rather than apply quantitative easing (QE) in response to virtually all downside shocks, central bankers would need to calibrate future support to avoid exacerbating price pressure.

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Yield Curves Forecast Monetary Policy Rather Than Recession

Despite these changing circumstances, both the European Central Bank (ECB) and the US Federal Reserve maintained interest rate suppression policies well into the supply-led inflation spike. Monthly ECB bond buying totaled €52 billion in March 2022 as the eurozone’s Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) reached 7.5% year over year (YoY). As the Fed slowed QE flows in February, personal consumer expenditures (PCE) were already at 6.4% YoY. Despite QE’s role in suppressing long-maturity bond yields, the ECB’s 2022 purchases will fall to €40 billion in April, €30 billion in May, and €20 billion in June, before halting “sometime” later.

ECB Asset Purchase Program (APP) and Pandemic Emergence Purchase Program (PEPP)

Chart showing ECB Asset Purchase Program (APP) and Pandemic Emergence Purchase Program (PEPP)

QE programs have anchored long-term global interest rates and co-movement between European and US long-term yields. Lael Brainard of the Fed’s Board of Governors recognized foreign QE’s ability to lower US long-term bond yields. Thus, expectations of rising Fed short-term rates amid ongoing foreign QE contributed to the inversion of the US 5s30s Treasury yield curve.

Vineer Bhansali, the CIO of LongTail Alpha and author of The Incredible Upside Down Fixed-Income Market, also noted how policy affects the yield curve. Since central banks can influence all points on the curve through QE, the shape of the yield curve reflects the policy outlook rather than the likelihood of recession. As Bhansali said:

“The first and most important signal that the Fed has distorted is the shape of the yield curve. Yield curve inversions, in particular, are well known by market participants to be a reasonably good predictor of recessions. Historically, that is. Right now, the Fed owns so many Treasuries that it has the power to make the yield curve shape whatever it wants it to be.”

Tile for The Incredible Upside-Down Fixed-Income Market: Negative Interest Rates and Their Implications

To add to Bhansali’s framework, an inverted yield curve embeds the expectation that rate hikes will slow the economy as inflation declines and disruptions ease, thus freeing central banks from policy constraints — a convergence toward pre-2020 “old normal” — which would lower the hurdle of renewed QE to suppress long-maturity yields.

Conversely, an inflation regime change propelled by a more fractured world with scarcity-led reflation demands a reversal of balance sheet expansion, or quantitative tightening. The Fed’s guidance as to how it would unwind its balance sheet — at $95 billion per month — exceeded many bond dealers’ expectations.

Fed Balance Sheet Unwind Scenarios, Pace in Lieu of Composition Shift

Chart showing Fed Balance Sheet Unwind Scenarios, Pace in Lieu of Composition Shift

Expansive Supply Chains Drive Inflation (and Policy)

As geopolitical instability disrupts once-efficient resource allocation, the relative peace and prosperity of the last 30 years is being reassessed. Could the lack of major power rivalries over the last several decades be the exception rather than the rule? And if the atmosphere deteriorates further, what will it mean for today’s globalized value chains?

This framework suggests the potential for supply-led inflation rather than disinflation. Further unrest could fuel a de-globalization process of supply chain regionalization and retrenchment that boosts inflation. Yet, a less expansive supply chain may have benefits from re-expansion once disruptions cease and inflation falls.

In market terms, the current bond yields in developed countries cannot fully compensate investors should markets fragment further. Carstens’ theory of an inflation paradigm shift leading to a monetary policy paradigm shift implies significant risks to long-maturity bonds assuming a worsening geopolitical outlook and further supply chain disruptions.

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All posts are the opinion of the author. As such, they should not be construed as investment advice, nor do the opinions expressed necessarily reflect the views of CFA Institute or the author’s employer.

Image credit: ©Getty Images / Thomas-Soellner

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About the Author(s)
Victor Xing

Victor Xing is founder and portfolio manager of Kekselias, Inc., and a former fixed-income trading analyst at Capital Group Companies with a focus on monetary policy, inflation-linked bonds, and interest rates markets.

2 thoughts on “Geopolitical Shock: Regime Change in Inflation and Monetary Policy”

  1. Dhananjay Bapat says:

    I feel that the QE tightening can cool the supply side inflation to a Limited extent. Also it has its own perils of choking the economy, when you need to grow more to keep pace in GDP expansion. FTA is the right approach taken by some countries like India Australia UK etc. Bottlenecks in supply side inflation needs to be addressed by giving leverage to large companies to come and invest in natural resources rich countries of the world.

  2. Fred Saadat Analyst Consultant says:

    502 Economic lesson 2023 year Supply and Demand Laws
    Path on your back CONGRATULATONS we have meet 4.95% interest rate.
    4.95% Interest Rates Congratulations soft landing air plane
    mild recession February 1, 2023 small rate hike .25% Quarter point
    smaller rate hike equities not soft about .42% corrections needed in a long time.
    2020 economic shutdown economic re-opeinng consumer panic shopping school supply, desk, chairs, college books, Quad-copter electronics, laptop, iphones, automotive purchases, food, caused inflation .14% supply chain drive up inflation.
    Supply chains drive up Inflation .14% at one point prior year 2021-2022 and down to 7.1% rate and up aging .9% and down .7% and now rates are now down 4.95% December 2023 from October 5.85% high.

    We have a supply problem pandemic covid-19 1.1 million american are dead and shortages of skill workers and population is aging many generation X age 48 not much working years less then 8 year’s if lucky finding employment.

    Supply problem diesel fuel shortages diesel fuel costs $6.00 pushes prices products higher adjust diesel fuel cost’s semi-truck driver deliver services compensation and pay driver’s. Tesla EV Self-Driving trucks companies are purchasing to deliver goods and freight rail transportation services to deliver goods to vendors and businesses.

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