Biography
Campbell R. Harvey is the Director of Research at Research Affiliates. His recently published research with Research Affiliates includes "Reports of Value’s Death May Be Greatly Exaggerated" and "A Backtesting Protocol in the Era of Machine Learning." He is the co-author of two books: DeFi and the Future of Finance. Harvey is also a professor of finance at the Fuqua School of Business at Duke University and a research associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research in Cambridge, Massachusetts. In 2015, 2016, 2022, and 2023, he received the Bernstein Fabozzi/Jacobs Levy Award for Best Article from the Journal of Portfolio Management. He has received 10 Graham and Dodd Awards/Scrolls for excellence in research and financial writing, as well as the James R. Vertin Award from the CFA Institute Research Foundation. He has published over 150 scholarly articles on topics spanning investment finance, emerging markets, corporate finance, behavioral finance, financial econometrics, and computer science. Harvey is an Advisory Council Member of the Financial Analyst Journal. He received a BA in economics and political science from Trinity College at the University of Toronto and a PhD from the Booth School of Business at the University of Chicago. His dissertation was the first to link yield curve inversions to recessions, an indicator that has reliably predicted the last eight recessions without a false signal to date. Follow Campbell R. Harvey on Linkedin.
Rebalancing may help portfolios stay on target, but its predictability comes at a cost.
The yield curve is inverted, implying an imminent recession, but the stock market is at or near record highs. What can we make of these contradictory signals?