Practical analysis for investment professionals

Joachim Klement, CFA

31 Posts

Biography

Joachim Klement, CFA, is Head of Investment Research at Fidante Capital and a trustee of the CFA Institute Research Foundation. Previously, he was CIO at Wellershoff & Partners Ltd., and before that, head of the UBS Wealth Management Strategic Research team and head of equity strategy for UBS Wealth Management. Klement studied mathematics and physics at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH), Zurich, Switzerland and Madrid, Spain, and graduated with a master’s degree in mathematics. In addition, he holds a master’s degree in economics and finance.

Author's Posts
Dumb Alpha: Don’t Just Do Something, Sit There!

Instead of being motivated by the rule “Don’t just sit there, do something,” investors might instead act based on the rule “Don’t just do something, sit there,” says Joachim Klement, CFA, in the latest edition of his Dumb Alpha series.

Dumb Alpha: Getting Rich Slowly

Instead of creating complex multilinear factor regressions, investors can outperform the market simply by selecting the stocks with the smoothest return profile — good, old, boring stocks that show no drama and a lot of stability, writes Joachim Klement, CFA.

Dumb Alpha: Trailing or Forward Earnings?

In the spirit of dumb alpha, we can say that simple trailing P/E ratios are far better value indicators than forward P/E ratios. Or as I tell my colleagues at work: Never ever use forward P/E ratios. Ever.

The Vagaries of Using CAPE to Forecast Returns

Historically the CAPE ratio has worked well in predicting the future real returns of stock markets. But recently the earnings side of the CAPE ratio has come under increased scrutiny.

Dumb Alpha: How to Build an Above Average Hedge Fund

Joachim Klement, CFA, demonstrates a method for beating average hedge fund returns — without the fees. It's the best dumb alpha can offer: a simple, low-cost investment strategy that outperforms more sophisticated and expensive alternatives.

Dumb Alpha: Sell in May and Go Away?

If the sell-in-May effect holds true, investors can outperform a simple buy-and-hold strategy by selling stocks at the beginning of May and buying them back at the beginning of November. But does the so-called Halloween indicator actually work?

Dumb Alpha: Don’t Get Carry Traded Away

Carry trades profit from investor herding just like momentum strategies. As more and more investors pour money into high-interest currencies and borrow on low-interest currencies, the demand for the former rises. This herding behavior can continue for quite some time, but it comes to a halt when investors are no longer willing to invest in high-interest currencies.

Dumb Alpha: Accelerating Momentum

Momentum investing can seem like an insult to your intelligence. Why should prices go up just because they have gone up in the past? But there is plenty of evidence that momentum investing works in the medium term.

Dumb Alpha: The Drawbacks of Compound Interest

With short-term forecasts, random walks tend to outperform the accumulated wisdom of professional forecasters. That estimation uncertainty is not reduced for long-term forecasts either, because mean reversion cannot overcome the effects of compound interest. Luckily, there is a range of techniques, from simple to sophisticated, that can help long-term investors with this challenge.

Dumb Alpha: Are Your Forecasts Better Than a Random Walk?

Research confirms a “wisdom of the crowds” effect insofar as only a few analysts seem able to consistently outperform the consensus forecast compiled from many different analysts.



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