Biography
After a successful 20-plus year investing career, Joshua J. Myers, CFA, launched Cedars Hill Group to bring large market expertise to broader audiences. He primarily serves as an outsourced CIO/CFO for family offices, RIAs, and small-to-medium sized businesses. He started as an assistant trader at Susquehanna Investment Group during the Russian default and LTCM failure in 1998. Afterwards, he was head of fixed income at Penn Mutual Life Insurance during the global financial crisis (GFC). He traded distressed CMBS securities in the aftermath of the GFC at Cantor Fitzgerald and most recently was chair of the board for an oil production company during the COVID pandemic. He is a lifelong student of financial markets and writes about current events with a focus on the art of decision making and cognitive psychology.
Banks and other traditional capital providers are no longer the primary source of capital for the economy. This shift has increased the diversity of capital providers but also has fragmented the capital markets.
How can sentiment analysis help interpret and anticipate market behavior?
Fitch Ratings' US credit downgrade highlights a latent principal–agent problem in modern financial markets: Investors have outsourced much of their risk management to the rating agencies.
The predictive power of the yield curve is a widely accepted causal narrative. But the history shows that the causal correlation between long and short rates is actually quite weak.