Biography
Scott Krisiloff, CFA, is the CEO of Avondale Asset Management, an independent investment advisory firm located in Los Angeles. Krisiloff is the author of the firm's blog, Company Notes.
Earnings season is over, but September is a busy month for conferences. Those companies presenting at conferences last week tended to have relatively upbeat things to say about the economy. Will positive commentary outweigh soft economic data when the US Federal Reserve meets in September? No one at the Fed has ruled out a rate hike quite yet.
The dog days of summer continue to see sluggish economic growth, with the longed-for rebound slow to materialize. It is difficult to imagine any acceleration in growth rates without inflation, says Scott Krisiloff, CFA, in his latest roundup from the C-suite.
There were signs that inventories have been sufficiently depleted, and that industry is cautiously beginning to restock again. However, Scott Krisiloff, CFA, cautions, if inventories are restocked and demand doesn't concurrently rebound, companies will shortly find themselves in a precarious position once again.
Department stores don't provide the same read on the economy as they did in the past, but, overall, activity is still depressed, says Scott Krisiloff, CFA. Yet there are signs of a possible upturn. And while the presidential election has been a source of uncertainty, the polls may be starting to give an indication of who is likely to win without having to wait until Election Day.
The potential fallout from the US presidential election is weighing on the minds of CEOs, but most think it will not have too much of an effect on the economy — it's going to be lousy regardless.
While we won't refer to this environment as being expansionary, there is some growth, and oil prices may have finally bottomed out.
John Maynard Keynes's legendary "animal spirits" appear to have returned to the US economy.
The United States has been in an economic malaise for almost two years, but the markets want to believe the economy is emerging from its doldrums. We'll get a much better sense as to whether this is another false start during earnings season.
"The UK can handle change," says Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of England, in the aftermath of Brexit. However, "uncertainty over the pace, breadth and scale of these changes could weigh on our economic prospects for some time."
For the next few weeks, we will be in the slowest part of the earnings cycle, but some companies are speaking here and there. Among the newsworthy items from last week: CarMax saw weakness among subprime auto borrowers, homebuilders are positive, and the oil industry sees a bottom and a slow recovery.