Scott Krisiloff, CFA, is the CEO of Avondale Asset Management, an independent investment advisory firm located in Los Angeles. Krisiloff is the author of the firm's blog, Company Notes.
Low-income earners never really exited the recession, and in fact, their situations have gotten worse. Inflation is outpacing wage growth for this demographic.
It was a holiday-shortened week last week, so there weren't a lot of companies talking. It is annual report season though, so a lot of this week's quotes come from shareholder letters. Commentary continues to be positive. Optimism has rebounded with the markets.
An industrial recession typically ends when excess inventories have been depleted. We are probably not there yet, but we're getting closer. That's a good sign for the second half of 2016, but tightening conditions in capital markets could create problems of their own.
The C-suite struck an optimistic tone on earnings calls last week. While almost every management team mentioned macroeconomic uncertainty, most executives (outside of the energy sector) were pleased with business conditions. They were even positive on the environment in China. But it's a little hard to believe that everything is business as usual.
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