Equity Investments

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The C-Suite Speaks: Business as Usual?

The C-suite struck an optimistic tone on earnings calls last week. While almost every management team mentioned macroeconomic uncertainty, most executives (outside of the energy sector) were pleased with business conditions. They were even positive on the environment in China. But it’s a little hard to believe that everything is business as usual. Read more

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The C-Suite Speaks: Banks See Strength

The first full week of earnings season is always filled with reports from the nation’s banks. Banks typically give the best read on the economy of any industry and for now they sound relatively upbeat. Outside of energy, credit has remained strong and management teams are optimistic about prospects for loan growth. Still, there’s reason to be skeptical. Read more

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Dumb Alpha: The Drawbacks of Compound Interest

Dumb Alpha: The Drawbacks of Compound Interest

With short-term forecasts, random walks tend to outperform the accumulated wisdom of professional forecasters. That estimation uncertainty is not reduced for long-term forecasts either, because mean reversion cannot overcome the effects of compound interest. Luckily, there is a range of techniques, from simple to sophisticated, that can help long-term investors with this challenge. Read more

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