By far the biggest hurdle to handicapping or investing is recognizing when basic conditions have changed, be they rule changes, unexpected weather, personal issues of the professionals, or any number of other fluctuations. From an investment viewpoint, I believe 2015 experienced such cumulative changes that made many of our old approaches less useful. Read more3 Comments
With short-term forecasts, random walks tend to outperform the accumulated wisdom of professional forecasters. That estimation uncertainty is not reduced for long-term forecasts either, because mean reversion cannot overcome the effects of compound interest. Luckily, there is a range of techniques, from simple to sophisticated, that can help long-term investors with this challenge. Read more6 Comments
Infrastructure is seen as an attractive proposition, not only because of its (in some sectors) double-digit returns in a low-yield environment but also because it offers diversification opportunities coupled with reliable earnings and consistent cash flows. Infrastructure can also be used for liability matching and inflation hedging (given that inflation tends to be built into the revenue stream of projects).