Practical analysis for investment professionals


Introducing the Unterest Rate

Let's stop saying "negative interest rates" and come up with a new word for a new phenomenon.

Is It Time for the Fed to Contract Its Balance Sheet?

The Federal Reserve can keep their balance sheet at the current size (and keep the risk asset party going) or they can position themselves to be able to hike rates, but they cannot do both. An analysis of the tools that they have at their disposal.

The Fed Was Right to Drop the Unemployment Rate Target

What is the purpose of the Fed raising interest rates? Do rates necessarily need to be hiked because the unemployment rate has fallen to a certain percentage? There answer here is no,

Currency War III: How Will It Play Out?

James Rickards says we are in the midst of the third currency war since the 1920s, triggered by central bank efforts to pull the world economy out of a structural depression.

Book Review: The Federal Reserve and the Financial Crisis

Adapted from four lectures given by Ben Bernanke in March 2012, this book is a good primer on the workings of the central bank throughout its history, including its role in the recent financial crisis.

Currency Wars: “The Fed is Playing with a Nuclear Reactor”

The United States is at war, but not in the conventional sense. There are no troops on the ground. There are no drone strikes. Instead, the weapon of choice is the US dollar and the “enemy” is America’s trading… READ MORE ›

J.P. Morgan Strategist David Kelly Not a Big Fan of Fed Policy

David Kelly, CFA, chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Funds, outlines three problems with the current Federal Reserve policy of zero interest rates and quantitative easing.

Gold Investing: What is the “Barbarous Relic” Really Worth?

John Maynard Keynes once famously called gold the "barbarous relic," suggesting that its usefulness and, hence, it's value, is antiquated. So the question really is, or should be, is gold useful today? If so, what is its value? And how much should you pay for it?

Take 15: Fatal Conceit: What the Fed Imagines It Can Design (Video)

Gary P. Brinson, CFA, discusses the impact that the Federal Reserve’s prolonged low-rate environment is having on plan sponsors. He argues that we are observing Hayek's fatal conceit where a handful of people in the government imagine they can redesign markets and do better than markets themselves can.

Debt, Drugs, and a Missed Opportunity for “Good” Deflation?

A recent Wall Street Journal article highlighting the pitfalls of a shift from randomly controlled experimental studies of pharmaceuticals to observational studies helps illustrate the flaw in the logic of today's central bankers — one that has left the world awash in excess debt.

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