67 Posts

The “Relatively” Easy Way to Forecast Long-Term Returns

The "Relatively" Easy Way to Forecast Long-Term Returns

Why bother with long-term return expectations? For asset owners or asset managers compiling a strategic asset allocation, long-term forecasts are relevant and necessary. When combined with estimates for risk and correlation, these forecasts allow investors to fine-tune their long-term benchmarks and consider trade-offs between asset classes to enhance the implied risk and return profile of the fund. Read more


Weekend Reads for Investors: Greece, Currencies, and Earnings

Weekend Reads for Investors: Greece, Currencies, and Earnings

It’s been an eventful week for most investors, if not a profitable one. In Greece, the leftist Syriza party, which pledged to end austerity, won national elections, and Greek stocks responded by falling 15% over the next three days. Greece’s bailout program expires at the end of February, and their anti-austerity stance and ongoing need for cash sets the stage for a showdown with the so-called “Troika” of the European Union, the European Central Bank (ECB), and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Expect plenty of political posturing in the coming weeks. Read more

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Weekend Reads: Beating Expectations — Again and Again

Weekend Reads Exceeding Expectations Again and Again

Companies have gotten so good at managing earnings (and Wall Street) these days that when reporting season rolls around, it’s hard to ascribe any value to news that a company “beat” expectations. In fact, a review of quarterly data compiled by FactSet Research Systems reveals a recurring pattern in recent years. Companies guide earnings and revenue estimates down over the course of the quarter and then clear the lowered bar when they report financial results. Markets cheer. Rinse and repeat. Read more

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