Practical analysis for investment professionals

US Treasuries


The Predictive Power of the Yield Curve

The predictive power of the yield curve is a widely accepted causal narrative. But the history shows that the causal correlation between long and short rates is actually quite weak.

Is the Copper–Gold Ratio a Dependable Leading Indicator on Rates?

Earlier this year, the copper–gold ratio was, in Jeffrey Gundlach's words, “screaming that the 10-year should go lower.”

Why Invest in Stocks?

Equities are not necessarily more risky than such "safe" assets as US Treasuries. 

Vineer Bhansali: What’s Wrong with Negative Yields?

A negatively yielding bond violates a very basic, fundamental principle: the time value of money.

Redefining Fixed Income

The golden age of fixed income is over. That means we have to rethink portfolio management and risk control.

Idiocy of the Masses or Masses of Idiots?

Why do investors keep investing in government bonds despite extremely low yields?

Russell Napier: Equity Markets and Structural Change

“Most people tell me that long-run equity valuation data is meaningless," says Russell Napier. "I think they’re wrong.”

Book Review: A Theory of Accumulation and Secular Stagnation

The author investigates Thomas Malthus’s theories of secular stagnation and uses his findings to shed light on the sluggish growth and lethargic employment rates that have recently plagued the US economy.

Dumb Alpha: How to Build an Above Average Hedge Fund

Joachim Klement, CFA, demonstrates a method for beating average hedge fund returns — without the fees. It's the best dumb alpha can offer: a simple, low-cost investment strategy that outperforms more sophisticated and expensive alternatives.

Who Protects You from Losses?

Gains and losses are the product of human behavior, driven by greed, fear, and sloppiness, with an accelerator of leverage thrown in to shorten the terminal period. This is the way it has always been and probably always will be.



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