Yield Curve
We are three months away from the longest yield curve inversion-to-recession period. Will Cam Harvey's famous recession indicator hold? Highlights from EI podcast.
The yield curve is inverted, implying an imminent recession, but the stock market is at or near record highs. What can we make of these contradictory signals?
Enterprising Investor's most popular posts of the year include contributions from Mark J. Higgins, CFA, CFP, Larry Cao, CFA, Michinori Kanokogi, CFA, and Yoshimasa Satoh, CFA, among others.
The predictive power of the yield curve is a widely accepted causal narrative. But the history shows that the causal correlation between long and short rates is actually quite weak.
Riccardo Rebonato combines theory with current empirical evidence to build a robust understanding of what drives the government bond market.
With rising rates and a flattening yield curve, can there be opportunity in fixed-income markets? Sloane Ortel examines what's happened and what to do next.