China

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Turning Points: The Status Quo Is Changing

Turning Points: The Status Quo Is Changing

The status quo is changing markedly. Oil prices are heading south as the United States ramps up production and OPEC refuses to cut to compensate. Moreover, global demand is looking sluggish with weakening growth in Europe, Japan, and China. The weakening of Chinese demand suggests that there could be a regime change taking place whereby the global driver of commodity demand is declining at precisely the moment when the expansion of global supplies is finally arriving. Read more

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Turning Points: Abenomics Sputters, German Bond Yields Fall

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe

Abenomics looks shaky as Japan revised 2014 second quarter GDP growth down to −7.1% on the heels of its escalating sales tax (from 5 to 8%). Ominously, consumer prices are rising but wages are declining in real terms (by roughly 6%), creating significant difficulties for the Japanese economy. Should this trend continue, Japan could find itself in a crisis of epic proportions. Read more

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