16 November 2017

George Friedman’s Eyes Are on Germany

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George Friedman
“We have to wait for Germany to make its move,” George Friedman declared at the 2017 CFA Institute European Investment Conference.

“It’s not the first time in history,” he said. “It won’t be the last.”

Friedman, the chair of Geopolitical Futures, has a history of being right when many others are wrong and being predictive when many are reactive. He has spent his career navigating the convergence of geography with history, politics, economics, and societal imperatives. And in his presentation to financial professionals in Berlin, he explained that “there is one last piece” of the global financial crisis that must play out “before we can move on.” Read More

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5 September 2017

How Unconscious Bias in Our Brain Counteracts Diversity

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Karolien_Notebaert

By Karolien Notebaert

About a year ago, Sam became a proud parent. Sam was on parental leave for 9 months and is now back to work. Whilst reading those two sentences, what gender did you associate with Sam? Due to the fact that more women take parental leave compared to men, most of us spontaneously thought of Sam as a woman.

Let’s try again. You are the leader of a team and in charge of dividing assignments. Who will receive the analytical assignment? Juliet or Peter? Who will receive the communication assignment? In this situation, too, many of us unconsciously assume that men have better analytical skills and women better communication skills. Is there something wrong with this? Not necessarily. Although many unconscious assumptions can be helpful, they can also easily lead to ineffective decisions and discrimination, making ourselves and others the victim of our unconscious biases. Read More

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17 August 2017

George Friedman Guides Investors through Geopolitics

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George Friedman Blog Post ImageHow do rainfall patterns in China contribute to U.S. tensions with North Korea? How do otherwise worthless hunks of rock in the South China Sea simultaneously affect global energy prices, U.S. aircraft carriers, and Saudi Arabia? And what significance do east–west flowing rivers in the United States have on the level of the yuan?

Questions like these are better answered when investors understand the convergence of geography with history, politics, economics, and societal imperatives. Without an able guide through the tangle of geopolitics, spurious analysis is common. George Friedman, founder and chairman of Geopolitical Futures, is acknowledged as one of the world’s most able guides of both political science and geopolitics.

Friedman is the author of several acclaimed books, including The Next Decade: Empire and Republic in a Changing World; The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century; and Flashpoints: The Emerging Crisis in Europe. He has a history of being right when many others are wrong and a history of being predictive when many are reactive. Read More

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10 January 2017

The Next Stage for Robo-Advisers

By

Randy Cass, CFA, founder of Nest Wealth

The CFA Institute European Investment Conference is a focused, interactive conference for Europe’s leading investment professionals. The 2017 CFA Institute European Investment Conference will bring portfolio managers, analysts, chief investment officers, and CEOs together in Berlin on 16–17 November.

If you’re in the business of advising investment clients, Randy Cass, CFA, has some advice: You will become obsolete unless you figure out how to add value beyond client portfolio maintenance.

Cass is the founder of Nest Wealth, an independent digital wealth platform that is now the largest robo-adviser in Canada, and he sees a point in the near future where clients will be hard-pressed to know whether they are dealing with a human or a computer. Read More

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19 December 2016

Antti Ilmanen Describes a Harsh Winter for Expected Returns

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antti_ilmanen

The CFA Institute European Investment Conference is a focused, interactive conference for Europe’s leading investment professionals. The 2017 CFA Institute European Investment Conference will bring portfolio managers, analysts, chief investment officers, and CEOs together in Berlin on 16–17 November.

“I have got bad news as a starter,” Antti Ilmanen told the audience at the 2016 CFA Institute European Investment Conference. Ilmanen, who is a principal and researcher at hedge fund AQR, announced that “It is not only a low interest rate world, it is also a low expected return world on any long-only investment.” Low expected returns are going to anchor bad news for all of us for the rest of our working lifetimes, and maybe beyond.

Looking back to the rosier past, Ilmanen acknowledged the healthy 4% historic US equity risk premium, but points out that today that number is sitting at the bottom of its historic range. He suggested that for a balanced portfolio, the real return is heading down toward 1% per annum. And he is scathing about other asset classes, such as private equity and real estate. “Twenty percent — it ain’t realistic,” Ilmanen said. Read More

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22 November 2016

Brexit Britain: Heading for a Variant of the Norwegian Model?

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Brexit panel discussion

“We are in unchartered territories, no country has ever left the European Union,” said Liam Halligan, economist and former fund manager, in a wide ranging panel discussion at the 2016 CFA Institute European Investment Conference. Four investment professionals on stage discussed whether Brexit will end up being a Norway model, a Swiss model, a Liechtenstein model, or a Turkey model, with the UK in the customs union, but out of the single market. Read More

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21 November 2016

Five Themes Shaping the Future for Financial Professionals

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maisonneuve-virginie

“I think that you will all agree that we are living in most interesting times. (Hear, hear.) I never remember myself a time in which our history was so full, in which day by day brought us new objects of interest, and, let me say also, new objects for anxiety. (Hear, hear.)”

– Joseph Chamberlain, British statesman, 1898

Few would disagree we live in “most interesting times.” Donald Trump as president of the United States, “Brexit” in the UK, and myriad other challenges have left many in the investment management industry wondering what the future holds. Read More

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14 November 2016

Muhammad Yunus on Merging Charity with a Business Engine

By

Muhammad Yunus

The CFA Institute European Investment Conference is a focused, interactive conference for Europe’s leading investment professionals. The 2017 CFA Institute European Investment Conference will bring portfolio managers, analysts, chief investment officers, and CEOs together in Berlin on 16–17 November.

Professor Muhammad Yunus, Nobel laureate, social entrepreneur, banker, economist, and founder of Grameen Bank, came up with a local idea that made global changes. At the 2016 CFA Institute European Investment Conference, he told delegates that his original intentions had nothing to do with banking or credit, but circumstances had pushed him into something he never expected. “I specialize in tiny, tiny, little investments,” he said. Read More

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2 November 2016

How Do You Define Yourself?

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Difference_Coverphoto

By Frederic P. Lebel, CFA

There are many ways to define yourself. It is a statement about what matters, what you deeply care about, and what has stood the test of time over the course of your life. Here are some words I often use to define myself: Swiss citizen, family man, keen investor, CFA® charterholder. What words do you use to define yourself? Read More

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12 October 2016

Tomas Sedlacek at the Intersection of Economic Choices and Moral Values

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Tomas Sedlacek at the Intersection of Economic Choices and Moral Values

Is economics’ perception of itself as a torch bearer of scientific objectivity misguided? Tomas Sedlacek, Chief Macroeconomic Strategist at ČSOB, has suggested that classical economics hides moralism within its models. Yes, there is mathematical rigor in economics, but the math was developed in service to the mindset and values of the Western World, much of it based on the mythology and moralism of the three Abrahamic religions: Judaism, Christianity, and Islam. Read More

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