Turning Points: The Calm Before the Storm?

A wrap-up of key issues affecting global markets for fundamental investors.

Currencies

• Yen threatened by insurers unwinding dollar-yen hedges. (Risk.net, available for subscribers or via free trial)
• China threatens a currency war if the Fed doesn’t stop printing. (Zero Hedge)
• Swiss Franc weakens as SNB president denies currency war. (Daily FX)

Commodities

• Morgan Stanley says copper prices to rise modestly in 2013 on growth in China. (Bloomberg)
• Chinese copper demand to push copper prices to $3.80/lb. (Bloomberg)
• Storm clouds are looming for corn prices. (AgWeb)

China’s Direction

• GMO warns of China real estate bubble. (China Financial Markets)
• China’s economy looking more secure. (OnWallStreet.com)

Derivatives

• JGB yields are down, CDS spreads are up. (Bloomberg)
• There’s no evidence that the EU ban on naked CDS will work. (Intelligence for European Pensions and Investments)

Energy

• IEA trims view on oil demand growth. (Wall Street Journal)
• US natural gas demand is proving stronger than expected this winter. (Yahoo!)

Euro Crisis

• The euro crisis is not solved, says German bank supervisor. (EU Observer)

Hedge Fund Money

• Ray Dalio: 2013 will be a great transition year. (Business Insider)
• Ackman vs. Icahn. (Fortune)

Interest Rates and Central Banks

• The Fed may take active role in popping bubbles. (Daily Finance)

Japanese Debt and Inflation

• Get ready, Japan’s economy is set to boom. (AEI)
• LVMH raises prices in Japan by most ever. (Bloomberg)
• Is Japan the canary in the Keynesian coal mine? (Inside Investing)

US Stocks +

• Recent Performance of the US Stock Market by Sector (Bloomberg Business News)
• Why Japan’s Yen is Sinking and Stock Market is Soaring (International Business Times)

US Real Estate Bubble 2.0?

• The New Orleans real estate market is rebounding. (Times-Picayune)
• So is the real estate market in Colorado. (Denver Post)
• And in Naples, Florida. (Naples News)
• And in Portland, Maine. (WCSH Portland)
• And in San Diego. (Fox 5 San Diego)
• The list goes on . . .

Time Capsule

• The Political Business Cycle: New Evidence from the Nixon White House Tapes: This paper reveals how then Fed Governor Arthur Burns was manipulated by President Nixon to set politically favorably monetary policies.  The article casts a sober look at central bank independence.

Please note that the content of this site should not be construed as investment advice, nor do the opinions expressed necessarily reflect the views of CFA Institute.

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