Weekend Reads for Finance Pros: Correlation and Causation, HFT, and “House of Debt”
Last night I was streaming an episode of True Detective (oh so good!), when a magnitude 3.2 earthquake centered west of Richmond, Virginia, shook the ground as far north and east as the Washington metropolitan area. Fortunately, there were no reports of significant damage or injury. Still, it was yet another reminder of the power of nature. Earlier this week I was gobsmacked when I saw this image come across my Twitter feed:
Good grief RT @PolicyMic: Photo: Incredible supercell thunderstorm seen in Wyoming -@Basehunters http://t.co/otjFtqb8gX
— Lauren Foster (@laurenfosternyc) May 19, 2014
One’s first reaction might be: Is that Photoshopped? No, it isn’t — as you can see in this time-lapse footage of the supercell.
But, I digress. Here are some interesting (non-weather-related) articles, photographs, radio clips, tweets, and Ted talks I’ve come across in recent weeks.
Behavioral Finance
Super interesting #BehavioralFinance piece, Why the Mona Lisa stands out:http://t.co/cpxZRcOtnb
— Jason Apollo Voss, CFA (@deceptruth) May 8, 2014
Investing
- “Fact, Fiction and Momentum Investing “(SSRN)
- “Risk versus Reward in Golf and Investing” (ThirtyNorth Investments)
- On why most financial commentary is hogwash: “A Load of Bull” (The Psy-Fi Blog)
- I love this paragraph from “Eliminate All Hero Worship“: “As my father also liked to say, everyone in this world puts their pants on the same way in the morning. That was his unique way of reminding me that no matter how rich or successful another person has been, they are just like all of us when it comes right down to it. In that same regard, these heroes of the market suffer from the same insecure, emotional, ego-driven trading and investing as the rest of us. The more you watch and track them, you will find this to be true.” (The Kirk Report)
Nice perspective on the illusion of getting rich quickly in the stock market by @cullenroche http://t.co/S6mNTL1DVr
— Ben Carlson (@awealthofcs) May 22, 2014
Great advice from @chessnwine on why you should never marry a stock, any stock. http://t.co/961cxffyc3 $WWE
— Tadas Viskanta (@abnormalreturns) May 16, 2014
Geithner vs. Mian and Sufi
- Atif Mian and Amir Sufi (who is speaking at the upcoming Financial Analysts Seminar) believe the Great Recession could have been just another ordinary, lowercase recession if the Federal government had acted more aggressively to help homeowners by reducing mortgage debts. Their book, House of Debt, is critical of Ben Bernanke, former chairman of the Federal Reserve, and Timothy Geithner, former Treasury secretary and author of the recently released Stress Test. (New York Times)
Worth a read: “Crisis Management Rethought”- @BCAppelbaum on the book by @AtifRMian and @profsufi @NYTupshot #debt http://t.co/nSWvOLfLsw
— Mohamed A. El-Erian (@elerianm) May 18, 2014
- “It’s not helping [Geithner] that his book was released contemporaneously with House of Debt, a reflection on the crisis by two economists who place the stress of the housing crash on households at the center of the story.” (Washington Examiner)
- Mian and Sufi make their case in “Why the Housing Bubble Tanked the Economy and the Tech Bubble Didn’t” (fivethiertyeight.com) and “Why Tim Geithner Is Wrong on Homeowner Debt Relief.” (Washington Post)
- “Man in Charge” reviews Stress Test, and “The Opposite of Insurance” discusses House of Debt. (The Economist)
I wish these guys had published in 2008. Why Tim Geithner is wrong on homeowner debt relief http://t.co/u5ImPWjZNW
— Sheila Bair (@SheilaBair2013) May 19, 2014
Wealth Management / Financial Planning
- “Is AI the new RIA?” (Inside Investing)
- What’s on the mind of the high net worth investor? How do they select wealth managers? What connects them to their wealth advisors? How do they use technology and social media as part of their search process? What are their expectations from their relationships? WE Family Offices discusses these issues in the Futurewealth Hangout Series.
- Bill Sharpe on retirement planning: “I Would Prefer to Default People into an Annuity.” (CFA Institute)
- LinkedIn endorsement options for financial advisers: “Should You Disable LinkedIn Endorsements?” (WiredAdvisor)
- “Why Many Retired Women Live in Poverty” (CNNMoney)
- “The Latest Thinking on Best Practices in Retirement Planning” (CFA Institute)
The HFT Debate Rages On
Cliff Asness et al make a strong case why markets are rigged IN FAVOR OF retail investors. Sorry, Michael Lewis. http://t.co/yPAWLSIxo6
— Michael Peltz (@mppeltz) May 22, 2014
Correlation and Causation
- Correlation, causation, and spurious relationships. (io9)
- And now for a humorous take on the topic:
https://twitter.com/freakonometrics/status/464792498058309632
Leadership/Decision-Making
- Earlier this month I put together a blog post of five TED talks that I really enjoyed. This week I came across another one — Simon Sinek discussing what makes a great leader. Sinek believes it’s someone who makes their employees feel secure, who draws staffers into a circle of trust. (TED)
- To influence human decision-making, you have to understand the unconscious mind: “Decisions Don’t Start with Data” (HBR Blog Network)
- “‘Warmth and competence are two of the most crucial factors we look for when deciding how we feel about someone . . . ” See:
Charisma is MUCH harder to achieve than following 5 "simple" steps – worth reading nonetheless: http://t.co/6rtJTBsi1r @Rouse
— Robert Gowen (@RGowen) May 13, 2014
And Now For Something Completely Different
- Why are we so busy? In “No Time,” Elizabeth Kolbert reviews Overwhelmed: Work, Love, and Play When No One Has the Time by Brigid Schulte, a reporter who she says is “the latest author to tackle the question — very loosely speaking — of where Keynes went wrong.” In other words, if “we have become, in aggregate, as rich as Keynes imagined, this wealth has not translated into leisure.” Is it that busyness has acquired social status? Or are Americans overwhelmed not because of how many things they have to do but because of how much time they spend thinking about how many things they have to do? What if neither of these theories is right and the real culprit is (ahem) men? “‘Though men today certainly spend more time caring for their children and doing more chores,’ Schulte writes, ‘it is still about half of what women routinely do.’ Small wonder, she concludes, that women are more likely than men to report ‘chronic stress and the feeling that life is out of control.’” (The New Yorker)
- “60 Iconic Images from the 1960s” (CNN)
- A very interesting piece by Dan Barber, chef and owner of one of my favorite restaurants, Blue Hill at Stone Barns, on embracing the whole farm rather than the ingredient: “What Farm-to-Table Got Wrong.” (New York Times)
- Also food-related: “You learn an enormous amount about capitalism studying food.” (Vox)
- Why the brain prefers paper: the science of paper vs screens. (Scientific American)
- Fascinating article on the power of eye contact. It turns out that making eye contact — even with a character on a cereal box! — inspires powerful feelings of connection. This has profound implications for our wired society. As the author of “Psst. Look Over Here.” writes: “This is alarming in a society where people increasingly spend more time looking at their mobile devices than at one another.” (New York Times)
- “Why Reporting On Scientific Research May Warp Findings” (NPR)
- Like piano? Improv? Watch this guy play the piano in a train station in London (and note the insouciance of some bystanders). (UPVINES)
Here in the US it’s a long weekend (Memorial Day), which reminds me of tweet I saw a couple of weeks ago that made me chuckle:
This weekend’s forecast: Sunny with a high probability of cheese, wine, and bread #IsItFridayYet?
Happy Weekend!
Please note that the content of this site should not be construed as investment advice, nor do the opinions expressed necessarily reflect the views of CFA Institute.
Photo credit: ©iStockphoto.com/temmuzcan