Practical analysis for investment professionals

History & Geopolitics


Change in China Hidden by Subtle Policy Shifts

The new "China 2030" report may be capturing news headlines, but a complex mosaic of change in the world's second largest economy suggests that China is already moving to fulfill its greater promise as a political and economic superpower.

Book Review: A Decade of Debt

Economics professors Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff document that the public and private debts of industrialized nations have grown to unprecedented levels relative to their GDPs. They find that a large public debt burden slows macroeconomic growth, even without explicit sovereign debt default.

Renminbi Internationalization: Outlook and Offshore Centers

Tse Yung Hoi discusses the possible influence that the Renminbi Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII) and RMB Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) schemes will have on the progress of RMB internationalization after Vice Premier Li Keqiang’s recent visit to Hong Kong and the role that the RMB will play in the global monetary system over the next 5 to 10 years.

Renminbi Internationalization: Background and Milestones

Wend Guo, CFA, recently sat down with Tse Yung Hoi to discuss the basic concepts, background, and key milestones of renminbi (RMB) internationalization, as well as lessons to be learned from the internationalization of the Japanese yen.

Africa: The Land of Alpha

The famed hockey player Wayne Gretzky once said, "A good hockey player plays where the puck is. A great hockey player plays where the puck is going to be." Frontier markets — especially those in Africa — are where alpha is going to be.

Losing Money to Preserve Capitalism: Can We Afford to Continue Bailouts? (Part 2)

Modern banking system bailouts fly in the face of the ancient capitalist philosophy of losses signaling market risks. In addition, financial bailouts tend to escalate in size and damaging effects with time.

Losing Money to Preserve Capitalism: Can We Afford to Continue Bailouts? (Part 1)

A major and ancient tenet of capitalism is the importance of losses to preserving the efficiency of markets. Yet modern banking system bailouts fly in the face of this perennial philosophy.

PIMCO Veteran Paul McCulley: A New Model for Understanding Geopolitical Crises

As a former portfolio manager, I know that practitioners often pay too much attention to the micro-level issues of individual securities and not enough attention to the broader macro-level context. Investors often reach for a microscope when they should… READ MORE ›

Jim O’Neill on China vs. Greece and the New “Growth 8”

Jim O’Neill, chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management and former chief economist of the investment bank, was this year’s keynote speaker at the UC RUSAL President’s Forum at the Hong Kong University of Science & Technology. He… READ MORE ›

European Sovereign Debt Crisis: Overview, Analysis, and Timeline of Major Events

Most commentators trace the beginning of the European sovereign debt crisis to 5 November 2009, when Greece revealed that its budget deficit was 12.7% of gross domestic product (GDP), more than twice what the country had previously disclosed. However, the real origins of the crisis can be traced to the very structures that govern Europe's institutions.



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