Practical analysis for investment professionals

History & Geopolitics


Radical Uncertainty in Finance: Why Modern Finance Keeps Failing

We need to reject the mirage Modern Finance projects on the market and revive a commonsense approach to uncertainty.

Option Traders and the 2020 Presidential Election

What can options tell us about expectations and positioning ahead of the 2020 US election?

Roberto Campos Neto, CFA, on COVID-19, ESG, and an Inclusive Recovery

Central Bank of Brazil governor Roberto Campos Neto, CFA, discusses the monetary policy response to the COVID-19 crisis in an interview with Marg Franklin, CFA.

Marko Papic: Geopolitical Forecasting in Volatile Times

Marko Papic believes investors can prepare for geopolitical events and beat the market while they’re at it.

Post–COVID-19 Europe: Three Scenarios

Austerity, mutualization, monetization, or some combination thereof? What path will Europe take?

Radical Uncertainty in Finance: The Origins of Probability Theory

How did modern society succumb to the illusion that uncertainty can be transformed into calculable risks?

Aging and Equities: Selling Stocks for the Long Term

As the population ages, who will be left to buy stocks?

Republicans or Democrats: Who Is Better for the Economy?

Should we ignore claims that one party or another is better for markets?

How to Read Financial News: Home Country, Confirmation, and Racial Bias

We all have biases and blind spots, and it helps to listen to people who see things differently.

Monetary Policy Gone Wild: A Lost Generation of US Growth?

The Fed could be setting the US economy up for a harder fall down the road.



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