Practical analysis for investment professionals

History & Geopolitics


The Fed Isn’t Bluffing: The Real Threat of an Upside-Down Depression

Paul Volcker restored the Fed's credibility through suffering. The Fed's leadership knows that it must pursue a similar course today.

Book Review: The Price of Time

Almost unique among serious finance books, Edward Chancellor’s The Price of Time serves well as bedtime reading.

Cochrane and Coleman: The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level and Inflation Episodes

John H. Cochrane and Thomas S. Coleman discuss how the fiscal theory of the price level explains inflation.

Nuclear Conflict: Why We Must Consider the Risks

In the wake of Russia’s attack on Ukraine, the risks of nuclear conflict have become clearer both inside and outside the world of finance.

DeFi-ing the Rules: Five Opportunities and Five Risks of Decentralized Finance

Campbell Harvey explains why DeFi has such transformative potential.

Building a CAPM That Works: What It Means for Today’s Markets

The capital asset pricing model (CAPM) is a marvel of economic scholarship. The problem is that it doesn’t always work in practice. So, we fixed it.

Book Review: The Financial Crisis of 2008

Barrie Wigmore analyzes an extremely complex topic, the financial crisis of 2008, with wide-ranging and deep analysis.

Equity Risk Premium Forum: The Deficient Market Hypothesis

"If we thought of the equity premium as a fear premium," Rob Arnott says, "a lot of the so-called anomalies that we’ve talked about would not be anomalies at all."

Geopolitical Shock: Regime Change in Inflation and Monetary Policy

As cracks develop along geopolitical fault lines, new barriers could emerge to disrupt global trade.

What If the US Government Were Valued Like a Company?

If the US government were a normal company, it would have had to declare bankruptcy long ago.



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