The US Federal Reserve has offered conflicting messages on interest rates ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting next week. Ron Rimkus, CFA, tries to make sense of the noise and offers a wrap-up of other key issues affecting global markets for fundamental investors.
Edward Altman says the benign credit cycle is in “extra innings,” but the metaphorical relief pitchers — central bankers — are running out of gas. Though most indicators point towards the end of the benign cycle, Altman cannot predict when the stress cycle will begin.
Interest rates are nearing a lower bound, David Schawel, CFA, tells Will Ortel during a recent Take 15 interview. “Most likely we’re not going to be in a 30-year bull market for interest rates falling again,” he said. So what does this mean for fixed-income investors?
In the leading Enterprising Investor posts from May, Mark Harrison, CFA, imagines a world without the insight of the late Jack L. Treynor; Sameer S. Somal, CFA, considers the intangibles of having your own firm; and Scott Krisiloff, CFA, plows through the recent avalanche of earnings reports for a sense of the consensus C-suite view on the economy.
In my previous life, as a reporter for the Financial Times, I did a stint covering philanthropy. I heard a lot about social entrepreneurship, philanthrocapitalism, and the ways that some philanthropists and nonprofit organizations were tackling some of the world's toughest, seemingly intractable, social ills.
During the global financial crisis, excessive debt was the principal disease. It also turned out to be the principal cure. Whether it was called quantitative easing (QE) or something else, it all meant the same thing: increased debt — both in absolute terms and relative to GDP.
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