Edward Altman says the benign credit cycle is in “extra innings,” but the metaphorical relief pitchers — central bankers — are running out of gas. Though most indicators point towards the end of the benign cycle, Altman cannot predict when the stress cycle will begin.
Interest rates are nearing a lower bound, David Schawel, CFA, tells Will Ortel during a recent Take 15 interview. “Most likely we’re not going to be in a 30-year bull market for interest rates falling again,” he said. So what does this mean for fixed-income investors?
What's the cause of the current global economic malaise? Lord Adair Turner believes it all comes down to debt. His proposed solution? Helicopter money, or what he prefers to call "overt monetary finance of increased fiscal expenditure."
In my previous life, as a reporter for the Financial Times, I did a stint covering philanthropy. I heard a lot about social entrepreneurship, philanthrocapitalism, and the ways that some philanthropists and nonprofit organizations were tackling some of the world's toughest, seemingly intractable, social ills.
As the saying goes, it’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future. But it’s manifestly worth the effort because catching big trends is how fortunes are made and catastrophic losses are avoided.
During the global financial crisis, excessive debt was the principal disease. It also turned out to be the principal cure. Whether it was called quantitative easing (QE) or something else, it all meant the same thing: increased debt — both in absolute terms and relative to GDP.
The Trump administration is considering pushing for Federal Reserve Governor Randal Quarles to become the next chairman of the Financial Stability Board, sources say. Financial Times (tiered subscription model) (15 Mar.)
If President Donald Trump wants to eliminate obstacles to trade, he should drop tariffs on steel and aluminum and reopen negotiations on a US-EU free trade deal, European Council President Donald Tusk said. "Instead of risking a trade war, which he seems eager to wage, we should be aiming for greater cooperation," Tusk said. Politico (15 Mar.)
The Securities and Exchange Commission will answer questions regarding when an adviser is deemed to have custody of a client's funds that stem from February 2017 guidance, said Paul Cellupica, deputy director of investment management. "We want to come up with the right answer, and maybe it's not just a simple answer," he said. InvestmentNews (tiered subscription model) (15 Mar.)
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