Practical analysis for investment professionals

debt


Turning Points: Janet Yellen vs. the World

The US Federal Reserve has offered conflicting messages on interest rates ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting next week. Ron Rimkus, CFA, tries to make sense of the noise and offers a wrap-up of other key issues affecting global markets for fundamental investors.

Edward Altman: The Benign Credit Cycle Is in Extra Innings

Edward Altman says the benign credit cycle is in “extra innings,” but the metaphorical relief pitchers — central bankers — are running out of gas. Though most indicators point towards the end of the benign cycle, Altman cannot predict when the stress cycle will begin.

The Outlook for Fixed Income: Stagnant Prices, Tighter Money

Interest rates are nearing a lower bound, David Schawel, CFA, tells Will Ortel during a recent Take 15 interview. “Most likely we’re not going to be in a 30-year bull market for interest rates falling again,” he said. So what does this mean for fixed-income investors?

Top Five Articles from May: Helicopter Money and the Earnings Avalanche

In the leading Enterprising Investor posts from May, Mark Harrison, CFA, imagines a world without the insight of the late Jack L. Treynor; Sameer S. Somal, CFA, considers the intangibles of having your own firm; and Scott Krisiloff, CFA, plows through the recent avalanche of earnings reports for a sense of the consensus C-suite view on the economy.

Helicopter Money: An Idea Whose Time Has Come?

What's the cause of the current global economic malaise? Lord Adair Turner believes it all comes down to debt. His proposed solution? Helicopter money, or what he prefers to call "overt monetary finance of increased fiscal expenditure."

Weekend Reads: Social Entrepreneurs, Bond Investing, and Human Nature

In my previous life, as a reporter for the Financial Times, I did a stint covering philanthropy. I heard a lot about social entrepreneurship, philanthrocapitalism, and the ways that some philanthropists and nonprofit organizations were tackling some of the world's toughest, seemingly intractable, social ills.

How Will the Next Decade Change Markets?

As the saying goes, it’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future. But it’s manifestly worth the effort because catching big trends is how fortunes are made and catastrophic losses are avoided.

Has Global Debt Become Unsustainable?

During the global financial crisis, excessive debt was the principal disease. It also turned out to be the principal cure. Whether it was called quantitative easing (QE) or something else, it all meant the same thing: increased debt — both in absolute terms and relative to GDP.

Risk Is the Dark Matter of Portfolio Management

Is there some dark mysterious force holding the financial universe together? Or will it all come flying apart?

Japan Enters Recession: Should We Be Surprised?

After declining 7.3% in Q2 2014, Japan's GDP fell 1.6% in Q3 2014 — officially placing the country in recession. It seems Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's "Abenomics" strategy is failing. Should this really be a surprise?



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