Edward Altman says the benign credit cycle is in “extra innings,” but the metaphorical relief pitchers — central bankers — are running out of gas. Though most indicators point towards the end of the benign cycle, Altman cannot predict when the stress cycle will begin.
Interest rates are nearing a lower bound, David Schawel, CFA, tells Will Ortel during a recent Take 15 interview. “Most likely we’re not going to be in a 30-year bull market for interest rates falling again,” he said. So what does this mean for fixed-income investors?
What's the cause of the current global economic malaise? Lord Adair Turner believes it all comes down to debt. His proposed solution? Helicopter money, or what he prefers to call "overt monetary finance of increased fiscal expenditure."
In my previous life, as a reporter for the Financial Times, I did a stint covering philanthropy. I heard a lot about social entrepreneurship, philanthrocapitalism, and the ways that some philanthropists and nonprofit organizations were tackling some of the world's toughest, seemingly intractable, social ills.
As the saying goes, it’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future. But it’s manifestly worth the effort because catching big trends is how fortunes are made and catastrophic losses are avoided.
During the global financial crisis, excessive debt was the principal disease. It also turned out to be the principal cure. Whether it was called quantitative easing (QE) or something else, it all meant the same thing: increased debt — both in absolute terms and relative to GDP.
The Financial Conduct Authority's Nausicaa Delfas said the UK and the EU must create derivatives contractual certainty after Brexit "either through an implementation period or by some other means." Delfas said, "This is an example of a situation where both sides could take unilateral approaches to dealing with the risk, but where a bilateral solution with the EU would be preferable." Futures & Options World (subscription required) (19 Jul.)
Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Jay Clayton has instructed his staff to review whether there are opportunities to "enhance the framework for oversight" of electronic platforms that trade bonds. The action came after Democratic commissioners called for disclosure of potential conflicts of interest by those platforms. MLex (subscription required) (19 Jul.)
UK Prime Minister Theresa May is urging the EU to "evolve" its position regarding the border between the Republic of Ireland and Britain's Northern Ireland after Brexit. The EU proposal "is something I will never accept, and I believe no British prime minister could ever accept," she is expected to say in a speech scheduled for Friday. The Guardian (London) (19 Jul.)
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