Edward Altman says the benign credit cycle is in “extra innings,” but the metaphorical relief pitchers — central bankers — are running out of gas. Though most indicators point towards the end of the benign cycle, Altman cannot predict when the stress cycle will begin.
Interest rates are nearing a lower bound, David Schawel, CFA, tells Will Ortel during a recent Take 15 interview. “Most likely we’re not going to be in a 30-year bull market for interest rates falling again,” he said. So what does this mean for fixed-income investors?
What's the cause of the current global economic malaise? Lord Adair Turner believes it all comes down to debt. His proposed solution? Helicopter money, or what he prefers to call "overt monetary finance of increased fiscal expenditure."
In my previous life, as a reporter for the Financial Times, I did a stint covering philanthropy. I heard a lot about social entrepreneurship, philanthrocapitalism, and the ways that some philanthropists and nonprofit organizations were tackling some of the world's toughest, seemingly intractable, social ills.
As the saying goes, it’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future. But it’s manifestly worth the effort because catching big trends is how fortunes are made and catastrophic losses are avoided.
During the global financial crisis, excessive debt was the principal disease. It also turned out to be the principal cure. Whether it was called quantitative easing (QE) or something else, it all meant the same thing: increased debt — both in absolute terms and relative to GDP.
The fate of the European Central Bank's obscure targeted longer-term refinancing operations will likely be debated in 2019 given Italian banks' heavy reliance on it for additional liquidity. Financial Times (subscription required) (07 Dec.)
The Securities and Exchange Commission is reviewing an application for the proposed Long-Term Stock Exchange, which offers a different shareholder voting structure to protect companies from pressure to produce short-term results. The fate of the proposal remains unclear as regulators and institutional investors alike work to determine the associated risks and benefits of such an exchange. Pensions & Investments (free access for SmartBrief readers) (10 Dec.)
Former Nissan Chairman Carlos Ghosn was indicted in Japan for filing securities reports that understated his total pay package. The company was also indicted, as was former Representative Director Greg Kelly who allegedly conspired with Ghosn. The Japan Times (10 Dec.)
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