Edward Altman says the benign credit cycle is in “extra innings,” but the metaphorical relief pitchers — central bankers — are running out of gas. Though most indicators point towards the end of the benign cycle, Altman cannot predict when the stress cycle will begin.
Interest rates are nearing a lower bound, David Schawel, CFA, tells Will Ortel during a recent Take 15 interview. “Most likely we’re not going to be in a 30-year bull market for interest rates falling again,” he said. So what does this mean for fixed-income investors?
What's the cause of the current global economic malaise? Lord Adair Turner believes it all comes down to debt. His proposed solution? Helicopter money, or what he prefers to call "overt monetary finance of increased fiscal expenditure."
In my previous life, as a reporter for the Financial Times, I did a stint covering philanthropy. I heard a lot about social entrepreneurship, philanthrocapitalism, and the ways that some philanthropists and nonprofit organizations were tackling some of the world's toughest, seemingly intractable, social ills.
As the saying goes, it’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future. But it’s manifestly worth the effort because catching big trends is how fortunes are made and catastrophic losses are avoided.
During the global financial crisis, excessive debt was the principal disease. It also turned out to be the principal cure. Whether it was called quantitative easing (QE) or something else, it all meant the same thing: increased debt — both in absolute terms and relative to GDP.
The tax overhaul backed by the Trump administration might take away the tax break for carried interest from hedge funds but let businesses that create jobs continue benefiting from it, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said. "What we are focused on is there are many other types of funds that do create jobs, and we want to make sure we don't discourage investment," he said. Bloomberg (21 Aug.)
The UK Department for Exiting the European Union issued a position paper Tuesday clarifying its stance on civil judicial issues, which would apply to financial contracts. One key point from the paper is the call for pre-Brexit contracts to be enforced by EU rules after the UK withdraws from the bloc. Politico Pro (subscription required) (22 Aug.)
Google and Walmart will work together to compete with Amazon. Walmart products will be offered on Google Express, the first time Walmart sells to US consumers online away from its website. The New York Times (free-article access for SmartBrief readers) (23 Aug.)
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