Edward Altman says the benign credit cycle is in “extra innings,” but the metaphorical relief pitchers — central bankers — are running out of gas. Though most indicators point towards the end of the benign cycle, Altman cannot predict when the stress cycle will begin.
Interest rates are nearing a lower bound, David Schawel, CFA, tells Will Ortel during a recent Take 15 interview. “Most likely we’re not going to be in a 30-year bull market for interest rates falling again,” he said. So what does this mean for fixed-income investors?
What's the cause of the current global economic malaise? Lord Adair Turner believes it all comes down to debt. His proposed solution? Helicopter money, or what he prefers to call "overt monetary finance of increased fiscal expenditure."
In my previous life, as a reporter for the Financial Times, I did a stint covering philanthropy. I heard a lot about social entrepreneurship, philanthrocapitalism, and the ways that some philanthropists and nonprofit organizations were tackling some of the world's toughest, seemingly intractable, social ills.
As the saying goes, it’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future. But it’s manifestly worth the effort because catching big trends is how fortunes are made and catastrophic losses are avoided.
During the global financial crisis, excessive debt was the principal disease. It also turned out to be the principal cure. Whether it was called quantitative easing (QE) or something else, it all meant the same thing: increased debt — both in absolute terms and relative to GDP.
The Securities and Exchange Commission and the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority have increased scrutiny of investor fees and high-fee share classes, a shift due partly to the Labor Department's fiduciary rule, as well as a trend toward passive investing, industry participants say. "The regulatory bodies believe that the all-in cost of retirement is too high," said Whitfield Athey, CEO of Delta Data. InvestmentNews (tiered subscription model) (14 Dec.)
Japan's major corporations are more confident about the economy than at any time in the past 11 years, according to the Bank of Japan's Tankan survey. The quarterly reading reached 25 for December, up from 22 in September. Nikkei Asian Review (Japan) (tiered subscription model) (15 Dec.)
The Republican-controlled Federal Communications Commission has voted 3-2 to repeal net neutrality, which prohibits internet service providers from favoring some users over others. Supporters of net neutrality, which was enacted during the Obama administration, said they might challenge the FCC's action in court. Bloomberg (free registration) (14 Dec.)
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