"Why on earth worry about demographics?” asked Clint R. Laurent, founder and CEO of Global Demographic. Because "Demographics change quietly in the background," he explained. "Suddenly, the target market that you thought Company X was going to do well in no longer exists." Laurent identifies four key demographic trends that investors should keep in mind.
For Andy Acker, CFA, portfolio manager of the Janus Global Life Sciences Fund, these are especially exciting times for investors in the health care sector. Opportunities abound, as significant advances in understanding the genetic causes of disease have resulted in a surge in new and more effective treatments. At the same time, risks remain and a disciplined approach to stock selection and portfolio construction is imperative for success.
Geopolitical expert Peter Zeihan foresees simultaneous political crises that will erode local state authorities, unleashing violence and terrorism. Capital flight, driven by geopolitical concerns, will surely follow. “The result is a world that will fragment," he said. "The result is a breakdown in global trade.”
Advances in medicine and technology, combined with other forces in society, are coalescing to propel average lifespans easily toward 100. Tracey Wilen asked delegates at the 69th CFA Institute Annual Conference to consider what that means for their career planning. For most people, it will mean having to build a revenue stream that funds their later years for at least 10–15 years longer than was the norm over the past several decades.
The global economy will never again experience the rapid growth rates seen prior to the financial crisis of 2007–2008, says economist Dambisa Moyo. Why? Because of technology and demographics.
By 2030, investment management will be transformed by megatrends that are already reshaping the industry, according to a new study.
Vikram Mansharamani argues there is a great insight to be gleaned from trends in animal protein intake in emerging markets, even in highly vegetarian India. To tell this story at the recent India Investment Conference, he started by comparing GDP and population sizes among advanced economies and emerging markets.
Robert Arnott, chairman and CEO of Research Affiliates, discusses what demographics can tell us about equity and fixed-income performance in the years ahead.
The population explosion is almost over, with fertility below the replacement rate in many advanced countries and rapidly declining in most developing countries. In the next half century, economic growth will be robust, especially in developing countries, and will increase world wealth dramatically. These factors will make it easier, not harder, to preserve the natural environment and avoid resource shortages. Investors should focus on natural resources and other industries that will benefit from these trends.
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