The leading posts to emerge from the European Investment Conference in London include a report on Tim Harford's take on economic forecasting; a Lindsey Matthews, CFA, presentation on the resurgence of middle-office positions; and a dire warning from Michala Marcussen, CFA, on the consequences of the United Kingdom leaving the European Union.
By the time you read this, we should know if the European finance ministers reached a deal Thursday to address the Greece situation. Either way, most believe that the "Greek tragedy" is unlikely to have a happy ending. And this situation bears watching because the end game will have significant implications for Greece, Europe, and the rest of the world.
Gustavo Teruel, CFA, recently spoke with Martin Wolf of the Financial Times about his latest book, recent developments in the eurozone, and the global investing outlook more generally.
The Fed continues with its second "installment" of the taper, reducing monetary easing from a total of $85 billion per month two months ago, to a "mere" $65 billion per month in February of 2014. This is the taper heard round the world.
Kai Konrad painted a picture of troubled states increasingly doubtful of the European Union, warning “don’t expect much from Germany.”
There continue to be growing signs of a credit bubble manifesting around the globe. In the United States, it appears that credit quality is starting to slip as banks are becoming more friendly to lower credit borrows. In private equity, Blackstone sees an "epic" credit bubble. Real estate in China appears to be frothy. And, with the Federal Reserve presently unable to unwind easing, these bubbles could and should grow in magnitude materially.
A large majority of the 667 respondents, 81%, said no: They expect the German chancellor’s famously austere stance toward Europe’s economically struggling nations to remain the same. This view is consistent with Merkel’s own post-election statements, in which she continued to iterate her opposition to a temporary debt repayment fund, despite widespread European support.
Earlier this week, we asked readers, "What austerity measures likely will be most effective in achieving sovereign financial recovery?"
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