Should anyone other than a statistician care about the fine points of calculating gross domestic product? In GDP: A Brief but Affectionate History, economist Diane Coyle offers a striking example of why investors and policymakers ought to pay closer attention.
At the recent CFA Institute China Investment Conference held in Shanghai, Goldman Sachs economist Jiming Ha painted a not-so-rosy picture of China’s economic growth outlook. He believes government spending has already become… READ MORE ›
With around 10,000 projects now in progress throughout the country, “the urbanization process in China is one that is absolutely unprecedented in human history,” according to Zheng Xiaoping. And, while securitization is an important financing tool for urban development in China, it is also becoming key to China’s fixed-income market.
Since bottoming in 2009, corporate profits as a percentage of GDP have rebounded sharply and currently stand at about 11%, or approximately 70% above the long-term average. Warren Buffett once said, “You have to be wildly optimistic to believe that corporate profits as a percent of GDP can, for any sustained period, hold much above 6%.” And Jeremy Grantham has called profits margins “the most mean-reverting series in finance.”
The quantitative easing recently announced by the Bank of Japan may benefit investors who hold Japanese equities, but Ron Rimkus, CFA, sees the classic makings of one big investment bubble.
Suddenly gold is being proposed as a cure-all for the weakening dollar, allowing it to retain its place as the international reserve currency — a trophy taken, not without a fight, from the British pound at the READ MORE ›
The United States is at war, but not in the conventional sense. There are no troops on the ground. There are no drone strikes. Instead, the weapon of choice is the US dollar and the “enemy” is America’s trading… READ MORE ›
With all of the variables in play, practitioners can be easily led astray when interpreting the results of time-series studies. A recent controversial paper on the relative economic value of tax cuts, provides an excellent example of why analysts must be alert to the challenges of multiple regression with time-series variables.
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