With all of the variables in play, practitioners can be easily led astray when interpreting the results of time-series studies. A recent controversial paper on the relative economic value of tax cuts, provides an excellent example of why analysts must be alert to the challenges of multiple regression with time-series variables.
In an earlier post, I criticized the concept of the “risk-free rate of return” as both illogical and not reflective of reality — and proposed renaming it the "lowest-available-risk expected rate of return." In this follow-up post, I offer some alternative bedrock rates of return for consideration. My preferred alternative: multifactor productivity growth.
The European sovereign debt crisis has been occupying a disproportionate amount of investor mindshare over these past many months. Yet there is another potential debt crisis in Europe that is receiving… READ MORE ›
Most commentators trace the beginning of the European sovereign debt crisis to 5 November 2009, when Greece revealed that its budget deficit was 12.7% of gross domestic product (GDP), more than twice what the country had previously disclosed. However, the real origins of the crisis can be traced to the very structures that govern Europe's institutions.
It is one thing to talk about the European sovereign debt crisis and its many details and another to look at the statistics that are germane to understanding the crisis. Here then are… READ MORE ›
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