Practical analysis for investment professionals

Monetary Policy


Book Review: Why Minsky Matters

In this comprehensive overview of the work of the late economist Hyman Minsky, the author serves up a rich variety of concepts that will stimulate and inform anyone concerned about the fate of the economy. If you want to know where we are going, it helps to know where we have come from, and this book provides an essential road map for that journey — past, present, and future.

China’s Dilemma: Stabilize Monetary Policy or the Renminbi?

Since 2016 began, the prospect of a major devaluation of China’s renminbi has been hanging over global markets like the Sword of Damocles. Although China's policymakers have worked hard to dispel worries, they have yet to persuade investors. Janet Zhang analyzes the causes of the depreciation, as well as the dilemma for China's policymakers.

Vollgeld: What It Means for Fractional Reserve Banking in Switzerland

Backers of the Swiss Vollgeld suggest that if money is divorced from debt and if the government owns the banks' debt, then a run is impossible. Unfortunately, the real world is almost never so simple.

Are Low Interest Rates Driven by the Fed or by Fear?

Next time you hear a pundit or an investor complain that the Fed is keeping rates too low, consider the evidence that suggests rates are low because nobody really has a grasp on which direction future growth may go.

34 Charts: This Time Is Different

Growth will come, but be realistic. It might take a while.

How Does Monetary Policy Impact Market Performance?

Can investors exploit Fed policy actions by piling into or rushing out of stocks based on those actions?

Has Global Debt Become Unsustainable?

During the global financial crisis, excessive debt was the principal disease. It also turned out to be the principal cure. Whether it was called quantitative easing (QE) or something else, it all meant the same thing: increased debt — both in absolute terms and relative to GDP.

Shuffling Sideways: What If Markets Are Bound for Chronic Underachievement?

All the recent market scares have been driven by the same implied menace. Whether it’s another round of anxiety about Greece, another head fake by the US Federal Reserve on raising rates, or fears about China’s economy, investors appear to be nervous about a major correction, downturn, or crash. But what if the real danger were of a very different sort?

Lessons from the Financial Crisis

Former chair of the Federal Depositors Insurance Corporation (FDIC) Sheila C. Bair provides insight on the financial crisis and discusses how the system can be made more stable in a Take 15 interview.

This Chart Breaks Capitalism — Can the Fed Fix It?

As I write this, US Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen and the Fed Board of Governors are ensconced in another two-day meeting. They will make a statement at the end. That statement will either move markets or bore them, but as a professional investor I will be waiting for exactly one thing: certainty about the path interest rates will take.



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