probability theory
Low Probability of Loss: Why It Doesn’t Equal Low Risk in Investing
In golf, a hole-in-one is a remarkable feat. The odds? Roughly one in 850,000 from a distance of 150 yards – practically a statistical anomaly. Yet, the 2023 LPGA tour recorded 20 such occurrences. How can this… READ MORE ›
Radical Uncertainty in Finance: Towards a Culture of Surprise
We need a new approach to risk and uncertainty.
Radical Uncertainty in Finance: Why Modern Finance Keeps Failing
We need to reject the mirage Modern Finance projects on the market and revive a commonsense approach to uncertainty.
Radical Uncertainty in Finance: The Origins of Probability Theory
How did modern society succumb to the illusion that uncertainty can be transformed into calculable risks?