Practical analysis for investment professionals

sovereign debt


Altman Says Credit Markets Reminiscent of 2006 and 2007

“When you think about credit risk today, sovereign default risk is the number one concern for investors, while the corporate bond market has been relatively benign since 2008–2009,” according to Edward I. Altman, a highly respected researcher of the high-yield bond markets,

Poll: How Will Financial Markets React If the United States Defaults on Its Debt?

The U.S. government will hit the statutory limit on its ability to borrow sometime between mid-February and early March, and unless Congress authorizes an increase in the debt ceiling, the government will not be able to meet all of its financial obligations. While the political squabbling has garnered most of the headlines, there are real financial consequences at stake. In a poll conducted earlier this week in the CFA Institute Financial NewsBrief, we asked readers how they expected financial markets to react if the U.S. failed to resolve its debt ceiling crisis and subsequently defaulted on its debt.

Government Debt: A Gentleman’s Wager

We are three years into a “recovery,” but labor participation is still low, gasoline prices — albeit off their highs — remain at high levels, and economic growth is clearly substandard. So, why can’t the economy turn the corner? I’ll bet you $1 trillion that I can tell you why.

Critical Factors for Evaluating Sovereign Credit

At the 65th CFA Institute Annual Conference, Fitch Ratings Group Managing Director David Riley discussed the critical factors for evaluating sovereign credit. In particular, Riley drew upon lessons learned… READ MORE ›

The Japanese Debt Crisis (Part 2): When Does Japan Cross the Event Horizon?

Social spending is virtually exploding in Japan right now, and at the same time its population is aging. Can the event horizon for a debt crisis be that far off?

The Japanese Debt Crisis (Part 1): Has Japan Passed the Point of No Return?

Some of the best-known research on financial crises asserts that countries get into trouble when debt-to-GDP ratios surpass 80%. With a national debt that now checks in at roughly 220% of gross domestic product, Japan, at least by rule of thumb, should have collapsed a long time ago. Yet Japan has — thus far — somehow avoided a debt crisis.

Take 15: The Risk Factors and Economic Impact behind Commercial and Sovereign Debt

Stephen G. Cecchetti discusses commercial bank leverage, calculating risk weightings, and the long-term effects of excessive sovereign debt.

PIMCO Veteran Paul McCulley: A New Model for Understanding Geopolitical Crises

As a former portfolio manager, I know that practitioners often pay too much attention to the micro-level issues of individual securities and not enough attention to the broader macro-level context. Investors often reach for a microscope when they should… READ MORE ›

Take 15: Sovereign Credit Risk and Market Turmoil: Challenges for China’s Economic Policies

Jing Ulrich discusses the economic situation in China, the challenges for policymakers, the development of China’s capital markets, and the management of trillions of dollars of foreign exchange reserve assets in the context of heightened sovereign credit risk and… READ MORE ›

What Explains China’s Economic Growth, And Is It Sustainable?

Why has China’s economy grown at such a fast rate during the last 30 years, and is this growth rate sustainable? These were the two key questions addressed by Zhiwu Chen at a continuing education event for investment… READ MORE ›



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