Earlier this month, newly elected Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's administration delivered its first budget. This bears serious attention as the budget is a good indication of the government’s focus and prioritization over the remainder of fiscal 2014 and the entire fiscal 2015.
In a recent speech, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas president Richard Fisher aptly remarked, “Stock market metrics such as price to projected forward earnings, price-to-sales ratios and market capitalization as a percentage of GDP are at eye-popping levels not seen since the dot-com boom of the late 1990s.”
This weekend approximately half of US households will be watching the Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks compete in the 48th edition of the National Football League’s Super Bowl. It is typically a time when stock market observers cast seriousness aside and consider what the game’s outcome will mean for equity prices by examining the Super Bowl Indicator. First proposed in 1978, this theory holds that stocks will rise in the coming year if an original NFL franchise wins, but will fall if an old AFL team wins.
As the bull market for US stocks approaches its fifth anniversary, we are starting to see signs typically associated with the latter stages of a multi-year advance in equities. Bearish sentiment, widely seen as a contrarian indicator, has dropped to levels not seen in a generation, retail investors are returning to stocks, and the IPO market has been surging. As further evidence, in the name of innovation, Wall Street is once again rolling out risky products that are almost certain to disappoint the unwitting buyer.
Lies, damned lies, and earnings management. If 20% of firms misrepresent economic reality through earnings management, analysts and portfolio managers must protect themselves by knowing how, why, and when individuals lie. Quantitative methods with forensic formulas, such as the Beneish model, offer part of the necessary skills to distinguish earnings manipulation from earnings management.
As most global stock markets have been on a tear of late, we thought it would be timely to ask readers what posed the greatest threat to equity markets. Over 37% of the 974 respondents to this poll believe that a global economic slowdown is the greatest risk to stocks.
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