Adeel Malik on the Economics of the Arab Spring

By

Last year, Adeel Malik, Globe Fellow in the Economies of Muslim Societies and a lecturer in development economics at the Oxford Centre for Islamic Studies at the University of Oxford, co-wrote a paper on the economics of the Arab spring. On 20 March, 2013, Malik will be sharing his insights at the Fourth Annual CFA Institute Middle East Investment Conference in Dubai. In this video, Malik discusses his upcoming appearance at the conference:

No Autoplay



You can register to attend the event to hear from Malik in person, and follow this blog for more conference news and updates.


Please note that the content of this site should not be construed as investment advice, nor do the opinions expressed necessarily reflect the views of CFA Institute.

tagged:

Avinash Persaud on Euro Zone Risks

By
Avinash D. Persaud, chairman of Intelligence Capital Limited and senior fellow of the London Business School

According to Avinash D. Persaud, chairman of Intelligence Capital Limited and senior fellow of the London Business School, a single banking supervisor for the European Union may actually increase the risks posed to its member nations. In a recent article published by The Economist, Persaud argued that “what may appear safe from the perspective of the operations of a bank operating across Europe could be unsafe seen through the lens of a national economy.”

Establishing the European Central Bank as the single supervisor of the euro zone’s largest banks could lead to bigger booms and more devastating busts at the national level, Persaud warns. Read More

tagged:

A Message from the President of CFA Society Emirates

By
Yacoub Nuseibeh, CFA, President of CFA Society Emirates

“I am extremely happy that the UAE is hosting CFA Institute’s Annual Middle East Investment Conference in Dubai, which has established itself as a global financial centre.

CFA Emirates has been working hard since it was created in 2002 to foster a higher level of financial education, ethics, good corporate governance, and transparency in the local markets — all of which the region needs to nurture and encourage if it is to continue to develop and grow its financial sector.

The Arab Spring has changed the dynamics and the playground, and many uncertainties remain. However, there are a lot of opportunities and aspirations to make the Arab World a better and more economically advanced place.”

-Yacoub Nuseibeh, CFA, President,  CFA Society Emirates

Welcome to the website for the Fourth Annual CFA Institute Middle East Investment Conference. This year’s conference, held 20–21 March in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, is open to all investment professionals and is unlike any other conference in the region. Read More

tagged:

Geopolitical Analysis from Peter Zeihan

By
Peter Zeihan, founder of Zeihan on Geopolitics

Peter Zeihan is a geopolitical analyst whose work has covered a wide variety of topics, such as natural resources at the North Pole and political tensions in South America. Before founding his own firm, Zeihan on Geopolitics, he worked at Stratfor. Renowned investor and past CFA Institute conference speaker John Mauldin has called Zeihan “one of the very sharpest thinkers” he relies on for geopolitical analysis.

You can watch Zeihan discuss challenges and opportunities facing various regions in the following videos: Read More

tagged:

Fourth Annual CFA Institute Middle East Investment Conference: Registration Now Open

By
Dubai

Registration is now open for the Fourth Annual CFA Institute Middle East Investment Conference, which will be held in Dubai on 20–21 March 2013. In the coming weeks, this site will be updated with information about speakers and a complete conference schedule.

The Middle East Investment Conference brings together noted researchers, speakers, writers, investment professionals, academics, and experts to examine unique regional issues and bring financial professionals up to speed on a broad range of global investment topics. The conference blog hosts a selection of articles and curated social media highlights from previous conferences, and it will be updated with news on speakers and other information for the fourth annual conference as the event draws closer.

Individuals interested in sharing ideas and building rewarding relationships can register to attend the Fourth Annual CFA Institute Middle East Investment Conference to learn more about the latest perspectives, research, and practical solutions to Middle East and global investment challenges.


Photo credit: ©iStockphoto.com/Nikada

tagged:

Islamic Finance: Bringing Ethics to the Center of Finance

By
Tarek El Diwany at the CFA Institute Middle East Investment Conference

At the CFA Institute Middle East Investment Conference in Doha, Qatar on 26 March 2012, Tarek El Diwany, a senior partner at Zest Advisory LLP, argued that religion—be it Islam, Christianity, or Judaism—is not alone in making value judgments about the purpose of life and what is right and wrong. He asserted that finance does the same and that  underlying value judgments are responsible for setting the direction of finance.

El Diwany believes that it is a value judgment that the sole job of those managing a company is to maximize shareholders’ wealth, and that money is the sole measure of value. He stated that because of this underlying value judgment, important intangible considerations—such as happiness—are conspicuous by their absence in the financial statements and decisions of corporations.

Because finance makes value judgments, it is similar to a religion, even if it is not perceived this way. “Once we recognize that finance is making value judgments,” says El Diwany, “the question is no longer whether religion should interfere in finance but rather which religion are you going to choose.”

El Diwany said that the belief that one is accountable to God can be a far more powerful regulator of human conduct in finance than any financial services regulator. He suggested that because of this belief, decision choices with higher Net Present Value (NPV) but an adverse impact on society and the environment, cannot be chosen over those with lower NPV but with benefits to society and the environment.

El Diwany explained that Islam prohibits certain means of transfer of wealth, such as gambling and lending money on interest. He emphasized that because lending money on interest is driven by collateral, lenders channel financing to those who can furnish the collateral. This, he contends, increases economic inequality and if the borrower fails to pay back the loan the lender is likely to pursue the payments even at the cost of ending the business of the borrower.

According to El Diwany, profit sharing arrangements, where the business and not collateral drives financing, those sharing profits are more likely to work together to keep the business afloat.

El Diwany highlighted that in the current financial system, which favors debt and provides it at a lower required rate of return than equity, thus substantially reduces the appeal of profit sharing arrangements for the business professionals.

Read More

tagged:

Livestream: The Changing Economic and Political Landscape of the Arab Region

By
Henry Azzam speaking at the CFA Institute Middle East Investment Conference

Listen to Henry Azzam’s presentation on “The Changing Economic and Political Landscape of the Arab Region,” which was broadcast live from the CFA Institute Middle East Investment Conference on Monday, 26 March 2012 at 10:00–10:45 AST. 

In this recording, Azzam discusses the economic and political fallout from the Arab uprising, how entrepreneurial culture can be nurtured in the region, and the key challenges faced by the region.

tagged:

Arab Spring: Good for the Economy?

By
Michael O'Sullivan

If you are worried about the economic consequences of the Arab Spring, Michael O’Sullivan, head of portfolio strategy and thematic research at Credit Suisse, has good news. His analysis of 83 cases, over 53 years, shows that regime change is not just good for civil liberties, it is also good for the economy.

Nearly one year after the start of the Arab Spring, which has already brought regime change in Egypt, Tunisia, and Libya, O’Sullivan spoke on the topic at the CFA Institute Middle East Investment Conference in Qatar on 26 March 2012. While the Arab Spring is a sensitive issue, O’Sullivan approached the topic like a financial analyst would approach a research project: he sought to remain objective and politically neutral whilst backing his statements with data and arguments.

O’Sullivan asserts that his comparison of before-versus-after data for selected regime changes reveal that the rank of these countries in terms of GDP per capita tend to move up within 5-10 years (see graph below). Their growth rates increase, unemployment and inflation diminish, and foreign direct investment (FDI) and market capitalization rise.

O’Sullivan explained that findings from the dataset on regime changes are partly intuitive. That is because typically unemployment and inflation weaken the economy and often contribute to regime change. Once in power, the new regime then faces much pressure to bring in economic reforms to reduce unemployment and inflation.

His presentation highlighted that regime changes often come in waves and within one country as one change may be followed by another if the economic situation of the people does not improve quickly. He emphasized that the initial period after regime change is particularly vulnerable and requires urgent economic reform. O’Sullivan’s analysis showed that in countries where inequality is low, regime change has less chances of being reversed but in countries where inequality is high, entrenched elites have a greater chance of reversing the change.

O’Sullivan complemented his quantitative research with qualitative research by interviewing leading figures who have closely observed regime changes in their own countries. These interviews with people from Chile, Eritrea, Turkey, Georgia, and Serbia, revealed insights that the data could not. Interviewees highlighted the importance of avoiding financial crisis after regime change, communicating effectively to different groups, and successfully fighting corruption, all of which are relevant for the Arab Spring countries.

Read More

tagged:

Roundup: CFA Institute Middle East Investment Conference

By

Our flagship event in the region brought together noted researchers, investment professionals, and academics to explore the unique economic and financial issues driving investment returns in the Middle East and North Africa. These curated resources, which include two Livestream sessions, blog posts, Twitter highlights, and conference coverage on investment blog Seeking Alpha, provide a collective snapshot of the most important takeaways from our speakers — as shared by CFA Institute staff, conference attendees, and our social media fans and followers.

Read More

Hedge Fund Returns: Revenge of the Clones

By
Narayan Naik

What do convertible arbitrage, distressed debt, long, short, and global macro managers all have in common? The answer according to Professor Narayan Naik, speaking today at the Middle East Investment Conference in Qatar, is exposure to a series of shared risk factors. Naik has devoted the last decade to the study of the factors that these managers have in common, rather than falling for the sales pitch that each strategy is unique.

Through a mammoth effort, he and his colleagues, Daniel Edelman, CFA, William Fung and David A. Hsieh have collated a giant database of hedge fund returns that is more representative than many available commercially. Within this database they searched for common factors that could explain hedge fund performance. According to Professor Naik when hedge funds are put into buckets a pattern emerges that can be explained in terms of equity risk, large cap/small cap spread risk, and credit spread risk.

This may sound like many other attempts to create a multi-factor model, however, the difference is that Professor Naik’s attempt appears to have worked. He presented model returns that looked uncannily like the returns of many hedge fund indices. Naik has essentially created a hedge fund clone that can apparently replicate the performance of hedge fund indices, at least in theory.

Naik’s analysis gives us a workable definition of beta in a hedge fund context; from traditional equity type betas through to exotic betas that are encapsulated by exposures to the specified risk factors. What is left as alpha is the extra return achieved on top of the returns to all of these risk factors.

Read More

tagged: