"Everybody knows we are in a post-truth world," deception detection expert Pamela Meyer told delegates at the 70th CFA Institute Annual Conference in Philadelphia. "People will tell you anything." So what are the verbal and nonverbal clues indicating someone might be deceiving us?
Private equity’s demise has been overreported, according to Claudia Zeisberger, founder of INSEAD’s Global Private Equity Initiative. Critics of private equity are not hard to find, and if you listen to them long enough, you’ll hear all kinds of stories that make your stomach turn. No doubt, there have been bad actors abusing the label of “private equity investment.” But private equity is a governance structure, not a business model or industry.
“Typically when the default rate is 1% or more above the Moody’s forecast, it is a good time to own distressed bonds," Martin Fridson, CFA, said. "Similarly, if the bonds are priced 1% or more below Moody’s, then the distressed bonds are priced too tightly (i.e., a signal to sell).”
It's more a less a certainty that, net of fees, the average active investor will underperform the stock market. Yet empirical data also suggest that there are a number of market anomalies that have persisted over time, and disciplined investors can exploit them to generate outsized returns. Peter Berezin highlights some of the most compelling ones.
Geopolitical expert Peter Zeihan foresees simultaneous political crises that will erode local state authorities, unleashing violence and terrorism. Capital flight, driven by geopolitical concerns, will surely follow. “The result is a world that will fragment," he said. "The result is a breakdown in global trade.”
Ten years ago, we thought the world was running out of oil, that China and other emerging market countries would have insatiable energy demand growth, and that production costs would generally rise over time. We were wrong. Energy expert Amy Myers Jaffe explains why.
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