Practical analysis for investment professionals

European sovereign debt crisis


Poll: Do You Believe That the European Sovereign Debt Crisis Is Over?

We asked NewsBrief readers to comment on whether they thought the European sovereign-debt crisis was over.

Turning Points: Shifting Central Banks, Fading Growth, and Falling Oil Prices

The central message encoded in last month's news is that the status quo has changed. We are shifting from the post-crisis recovery to late cycle growth. Only now there is greater concern about large pockets of low-quality debt and the decreased ability of central banks to deal with these problems.

Turning Points: Abenomics Sputters, German Bond Yields Fall

Abenomics looks shaky as Japan revised 2014 second quarter GDP growth down to −7.1% on the heels of its escalating sales tax (from 5 to 8%). Ominously, consumer prices are rising but wages are declining in real terms (by roughly 6%), creating significant difficulties for the Japanese economy. Should this trend continue, Japan could find itself in a crisis of epic proportions.

Turning Points: The Impending Taper, Japan’s Troubled Economy

Analysts continue trying to assess the dependence of markets on the Fed and to discern the direction of the economy.

Turning Points: Real Estate, Emerging Markets, and Politics

While the world is seemingly distracted with the loss of Malaysian Airlines Flight 730, the big news this month of course is Russia's invasion and annexation of Crimea. The Fed continues with its taper, and Yellen even gave us some indication that the Fed may start increasing rates late in 2014.

Take 15: Can Germany Save the Eurozone? (Video)

Kai A. Konrad, director at the Max Planck Institute for Tax Law and Public Finance, shares his views on the eurozone including why Germany may not have the economic force necessary to save the eurozone.

Poll: Which Austerity Measures Will Be Most Likely to Affect Recovery?

Earlier this week, we asked readers, "What austerity measures likely will be most effective in achieving sovereign financial recovery?"

Poll: Why Didn’t the Cyprus “Bail-In” Cause a Bank Run?

The recent “bail-in” of Cyprus by the EU, IMF and European Central Bank troika forced depositors in Cyprus banks to turn over about 40% of their assets to the banking system. This action hasn’t caused a bank run in the greater eurozone yet, so we asked professional investors why this is the case.

Eurozone Crisis: Could Informal Problem-Solving Mechanisms Prove the Conventional Wisdom Wrong?

Predictions of the disintegration of the “European experiment” have yet to be fulfilled despite more than 1,000 days having passed since the eurozone crisis first began. Investors owe it to themselves to consider alternate scenarios.

Turning Points: US Housing, Cyprus Bail-In, and Monetary Policy

A wrap-up of key issues affecting global markets for fundamental investors.



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