Practical analysis for investment professionals

Forecasting


Research Analysts Add Value: Here’s Proof

Post-event analyst forecasts — those made subsequent to recent results or management guidance — are significantly more accurate than management forecasts, reports Jeremy Monk. And if analysts can provide insight into tangible measures of value, then we can presume they are also able to offer insight into other, less tangible measures of value, such as management quality and industry outlook.

Count on Low Expected Returns, Says Antti Ilmanen

“It is not only a low interest rate world, it is also a low expected return world on any long-only investment,” said Antti Ilmanen, in his presentation at the 2016 CFA Institute European Investment Conference. Low expected returns are going to anchor bad news for all of us for the rest of our working lifetimes, he said, and maybe beyond.

Dumb Alpha: Trailing or Forward Earnings?

In the spirit of dumb alpha, we can say that simple trailing P/E ratios are far better value indicators than forward P/E ratios. Or as I tell my colleagues at work: Never ever use forward P/E ratios. Ever.

The Vagaries of Using CAPE to Forecast Returns

Historically the CAPE ratio has worked well in predicting the future real returns of stock markets. But recently the earnings side of the CAPE ratio has come under increased scrutiny.

Dumb Alpha: Are Your Forecasts Better Than a Random Walk?

Research confirms a “wisdom of the crowds” effect insofar as only a few analysts seem able to consistently outperform the consensus forecast compiled from many different analysts.

Essential Listening: Accurate Forecasters

One of the purposes of the Essential Listening series is to help in discovery, says Tadas Viskanta of Abnormal Returns. Among the challenges facing professionals, including those of us in the investing field, is finding new and interesting content.

Enron Revisited: Highlights from Bear Stearns Research

Today, it's hard to remember Enron as anything but a classic example of hubris and fraud. But the market didn't always know that. A recently revealed Bear Stearns research note shows just what the market thought of Enron in the heady days of early 2001.

Making Sense of Long-Term Returns

All advisers face the same challenge: How can we best help investors understand what sort of long-term returns they can rationally expect?

The “Relatively” Easy Way to Forecast Long-Term Returns

Why bother with long-term return expectations? For asset owners or asset managers compiling a strategic asset allocation, long-term forecasts are relevant and necessary. When combined with estimates for risk and correlation, these forecasts allow investors to fine-tune their long-term benchmarks and consider trade-offs between asset classes to enhance the implied risk and return profile of the fund.

Forecast Early and Often

Wall Street Journal columnist Jason Zweig recently wrote of a truism that is rarely acknowledged within the investment industry: Wall Street market forecasts offer little to no value. While it may be a fruitless exercise, hearing the prognostications of acknowledged market experts remains a guilty pleasure of many investment professionals, which may explain why nearly 1,000 of them turned out last week for CFA Society Toronto’s 58th Annual Forecast Dinner.



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