Practical analysis for investment professionals

Forecasting


Dumb Alpha: Trailing or Forward Earnings?

In the spirit of dumb alpha, we can say that simple trailing P/E ratios are far better value indicators than forward P/E ratios. Or as I tell my colleagues at work: Never ever use forward P/E ratios. Ever.

The Vagaries of Using CAPE to Forecast Returns

Historically the CAPE ratio has worked well in predicting the future real returns of stock markets. But recently the earnings side of the CAPE ratio has come under increased scrutiny.

Dumb Alpha: Are Your Forecasts Better Than a Random Walk?

Research confirms a “wisdom of the crowds” effect insofar as only a few analysts seem able to consistently outperform the consensus forecast compiled from many different analysts.

Essential Listening: Accurate Forecasters

One of the purposes of the Essential Listening series is to help in discovery, says Tadas Viskanta of Abnormal Returns. Among the challenges facing professionals, including those of us in the investing field, is finding new and interesting content.

Enron Revisited: Highlights from Bear Stearns Research

Today, it's hard to remember Enron as anything but a classic example of hubris and fraud. But the market didn't always know that. A recently revealed Bear Stearns research note shows just what the market thought of Enron in the heady days of early 2001.

Making Sense of Long-Term Returns

All advisers face the same challenge: How can we best help investors understand what sort of long-term returns they can rationally expect?

The “Relatively” Easy Way to Forecast Long-Term Returns

Why bother with long-term return expectations? For asset owners or asset managers compiling a strategic asset allocation, long-term forecasts are relevant and necessary. When combined with estimates for risk and correlation, these forecasts allow investors to fine-tune their long-term benchmarks and consider trade-offs between asset classes to enhance the implied risk and return profile of the fund.

Forecast Early and Often

Wall Street Journal columnist Jason Zweig recently wrote of a truism that is rarely acknowledged within the investment industry: Wall Street market forecasts offer little to no value. While it may be a fruitless exercise, hearing the prognostications of acknowledged market experts remains a guilty pleasure of many investment professionals, which may explain why nearly 1,000 of them turned out last week for CFA Society Toronto’s 58th Annual Forecast Dinner.

Book Review: Inside the Crystal Ball

This book is an invaluable resource for anyone striving for a command of the inner workings of the economy. The author details his impressively rigorous forecasting process, which draws on all major schools of macroeconomic thought. He also dives deep into the data to explain some of his expectations.

Book Review: Fortune Tellers: The Story of America’s First Economic Forecasters

Walter A. Friedman tells the captivating story of some pioneers of what many still call the “black art” of economic forecasting and credits them with inspiring succeeding generations of forecasters who may or may not have raised the art to a science.



By continuing to use the site, you agree to the use of cookies. more information

The cookie settings on this website are set to "allow cookies" to give you the best browsing experience possible. If you continue to use this website without changing your cookie settings or you click "Accept" below then you are consenting to this.

Close