Practical analysis for investment professionals

Forecasting


Futurology — Can Things Only Get Better or Worse?

The only certainty about the future is that it will continue to serve as an endless source of debate for intellectuals and economists.

Forecasting Macro Trends: Futurist David Houle on the “Shift Age” (Video)

Leading futurist David Houle, author of "Entering the Shift Age," discusses and contextualizes our world to better highlight emerging trends for investors.

The Next Normal? Is Crisis Fatigue Causing Wishful Thinking about the Markets?

I think everyone who follows financial markets has crisis fatigue, and most would be happy and relieved if the era of financial crisis is truly ending. But as analysts we shouldn’t allow optimism and wishful thinking to lead to analytical complacency.

Poll: Do Wall Street’s Sell-Side Market Forecasts Have Value?

In a poll conducted earlier this week, we asked readers whether the year-ahead market forecasts traditionally circulated by Wall Street’s sell-side firms have value to professional investors.

Generating Investment Ideas: Interview with Futurist David Houle

Investing results unfold in the future, yet many investors spend all of their time analyzing facts. What can a leading futurist teach investors about forecasting?

Measuring Investor Overcrowding

Are institutional investors mostly investing in the same securities at the same time? And can a better understanding of such crowding help investors?

With the recent news that Apple, Inc…. READ MORE ›

Book Review: Red-Blooded Risk

No one who reads this book will ever again regard risk management as a necessary but unproductive appendage of the financial industry. Other authors have chronicled how quantitative finance influenced investment management, but Aaron Brown has made a compelling case for a far more profound economic impact.

Do Buy-Side Investment Recommendations Add Value?

Large sample studies of buy-side investment recommendations have been virtually impossible to execute due to a lack of data. But a new research paper relies on a novel data set compiled by the private social networking website SumZero to show that buy-side stock picks influence asset prices by bringing new information to the marketplace. The authors also find evidence of “wealth transfers” flowing from the broader institutional marketplace to the investment firms represented on SumZero.

Forecast Fatigue: What’s the Value of Annual Market Predictions?

At the beginning of each year, most leading brokerage houses and many prominent investors issue market forecasts. As we approach the saturation point, it is worth pondering whether these forecasts merit the attention of professional investors.



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