Practical analysis for investment professionals

Forecasting


The Path Ahead: Insights on the Economic Recovery

Despite the shock reverberating through the global economy, equity prices have maintained their upward trajectory. What explains this disconnect?

Forecasting the Post-Coronavirus World

Joachim Klement, CFA, is confident of one post-pandemic forecast: Fewer things will change than we expect.

How to Beat the 2020 Year-End Forecasts

Where will stock markets and interest rates be at year-end 2020?

Top 10 Posts from 2019: Damodaran, Marks, Shiller, and Buffett

The leading Enterprising Investor articles from 2019 feature insights from some of the top luminaries in all of finance.

10 Rules for Forecasting

Joachim Klement, CFA, has created his own set of rules to use as guidance when forecasting economic or political events.

The Changing Nature of Recessions

We may not have seen the end of boom and bust, but the world’s leading economies do appear to have become more stable in recent decades, Dr. David Kelly, CFA, writes.

Beware of Experts Bearing Forecasts

As finance gurus forecast a market that's variously overvalued, undervalued, ready to plunge off the cliff, or blast off to new heights, remember to tune out the noise and stay invested for the long run, says Mark Armbruster, CFA.

In Practice Summary: Build in Buybacks for Better Forecasts

When investors forecast long-run drivers of stock returns, are cash dividends or payouts such as buybacks more accurate criteria than fundamentals? A new study suggests that they are. Mark Harrison, CFA, explains.

Research Analysts Add Value: Here’s Proof

Post-event analyst forecasts — those made subsequent to recent results or management guidance — are significantly more accurate than management forecasts, reports Jeremy Monk. And if analysts can provide insight into tangible measures of value, then we can presume they are also able to offer insight into other, less tangible measures of value, such as management quality and industry outlook.

Count on Low Expected Returns, Says Antti Ilmanen

“It is not only a low interest rate world, it is also a low expected return world on any long-only investment,” said Antti Ilmanen, in his presentation at the 2016 CFA Institute European Investment Conference. Low expected returns are going to anchor bad news for all of us for the rest of our working lifetimes, he said, and maybe beyond.