When investors forecast long-run drivers of stock returns, are cash dividends or payouts such as buybacks more accurate criteria than fundamentals? A new study suggests that they are. Mark Harrison, CFA, explains.
Post-event analyst forecasts — those made subsequent to recent results or management guidance — are significantly more accurate than management forecasts, reports Jeremy Monk. And if analysts can provide insight into tangible measures of value, then we can presume they are also able to offer insight into other, less tangible measures of value, such as management quality and industry outlook.
“It is not only a low interest rate world, it is also a low expected return world on any long-only investment,” said Antti Ilmanen, in his presentation at the 2016 CFA Institute European Investment Conference. Low expected returns are going to anchor bad news for all of us for the rest of our working lifetimes, he said, and maybe beyond.
Research confirms a “wisdom of the crowds” effect insofar as only a few analysts seem able to consistently outperform the consensus forecast compiled from many different analysts.
One of the purposes of the Essential Listening series is to help in discovery, says Tadas Viskanta of Abnormal Returns. Among the challenges facing professionals, including those of us in the investing field, is finding new and interesting content.
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