Practical analysis for investment professionals

bubbles


Robert J. Shiller on Bubbles, Reflexivity, and Narrative Economics

Robert J. Shiller has shown remarkable prescience over the years. And with talk of inverted yield curves, overvalued stock markets, and imminent recession, the present struck us as an opportune time to see what was on his mind.

Is There a Bond Market Bubble?

If the results of a recent CFA Institute Financial NewsBrief poll are any indication, at least some of the global fixed-income market is in bubble territory.

Are Investors Expecting Too Much from Infrastructure?

Infrastructure is seen as an attractive proposition, not only because of its (in some sectors) double-digit returns in a low-yield environment but also because it offers diversification opportunities coupled with reliable earnings and consistent cash flows. Infrastructure can also be used for liability matching and inflation hedging (given that inflation tends to be built into the revenue stream of projects).

The Risk of Venture Capital Bubbles Beyond Wall Street

Increased capital flows to a space with low transparency and distinctly limited opportunities can be the classic setup for a bubble. In venture capital, this is magnified by the boom-or-bust nature of the companies themselves.

Book Review: Speculation, Trading, and Bubbles

Adapted from a lecture by the author and a follow-up discussion with eminent economists, this book includes an analysis of the South Sea Bubble and the application of the author’s new economic model to that and similar episodes. Open-minded investors would benefit from the book’s insights on speculative trading bubbles.

Asset Managers Pose Systemic Risk — It’s Time To Recognize It

Now that the world's largest asset manager manages considerably more money than the world's largest bank, it's time to think about the potential for systemic risk.

The Coming Consumption Boom from the Emerging Middle Class

Vikram Mansharamani argues there is a great insight to be gleaned from trends in animal protein intake in emerging markets, even in highly vegetarian India. To tell this story at the recent India Investment Conference, he started by comparing GDP and population sizes among advanced economies and emerging markets.

What’s Really Behind the Plunge in Oil Prices?

Given the recent developments in the price of oil and their implications for the broader market, what follows is an interview with Daniel Lacalle, a specialist in energy and utilities.

Weekend Reads for Finance Pros: Bubbles, Fama and French, and Executive Brains

Have you wondered how an economics book written by a French professor — Thomas Piketty’s tome Capital in the Twenty-First Century with 577 pages of text and graphs plus 78 pages of notes — scaled the best-seller lists on Amazon and the New York Times? As with so many things in life, timing is a factor.

Weekend Reads for Advisers: Our Brains, Psychopaths, and (Failed) Resolutions

Back in my fomer life, I was a reporter and editor at the Financial Times, where, for a time, I edited James Altucher’s regular FT column. His musings were often irreverent and amusing and, needless to say, attracted a… READ MORE ›



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