Geopolitical strategist Peter Zeihan sees a world undergoing rapid and disruptive geopolitical change. He focused in on some of the key forces driving that change and the emerging conflicts they are spurring in the question-and-answer session that followed his presentation at the 69th CFA Institute Annual Conference.
The author focuses on market dislocation issues that make commodities different from other asset classes, looking at the market’s dynamics through the four major forces that influence the commodity landscape. He examines long-term issues and takes the discussion of commodity markets beyond the typical focus on financial pricing models, emphasizing instead the larger competitive forces of supply and demand.
David-Michael Lincke, CFA, said that commodities continue to offer many investors meaningful benefits through diversification, inflation protection, and absolute returns.
The key to success for emerging markets is to reform institutions to compete for talent and capital on a global scale, according to Martyn Davies. Diversification is not a policy, but a “people-driven initiative” about attracting skilled workers and intellectual property.
Geopolitical expert Peter Zeihan foresees simultaneous political crises that will erode local state authorities, unleashing violence and terrorism. Capital flight, driven by geopolitical concerns, will surely follow. “The result is a world that will fragment," he said. "The result is a breakdown in global trade.”
Ten years ago, we thought the world was running out of oil, that China and other emerging market countries would have insatiable energy demand growth, and that production costs would generally rise over time. We were wrong. Energy expert Amy Myers Jaffe explains why.
Willis Sparks of the Eurasia Group discussed the potential effects of geopolitics as a market influencer in his presentation to the CFA Institute Middle East Investment Conference in Bahrain.
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