Linkfest: Low volatility — good times, or complacency? US approaches full employment; Historic defeat’s impact on Brazil

Categories: Linkfest

Today’s most shared:

  • Low volatility a sign of good times, or complacency?
  • US economy approaching full employment, not fast enough for some. Workers born in 1988 likely to find prospects permanently impaired… no wonder cohorts may share political views.
  • Even though companies that retain earnings should grow faster, dividend payers tend to be more disciplined and provide better risk-adjusted returns.
  • Marc Faber calls for 30% decline in S&P…but then he was calling for a 20% drop 40% ago.
  • Brazil’s historic World Cup collapse…so bad for Brazil’s economy it’s good for reform, or just really bad?

All aboard the volatility express
timharford.com
Should we treat low volatility as a portent of disaster, or as a sign that the world economy is finally on the right track?
shared by @derekhernquist, @MarkThoma, Reformed Broker, Abnormal Returns
 
Short selling drops to lowest level since Lehman
Financial Times
Hedge funds have sharply scaled back their bearish bets that the value of stocks is about to fall, with the proportion of shares earmarked for short selling at its lowest level since before the financial crisis.
shared by @firstadopter, @MParekh, @mhewson_CMC, @Markit, NYT Dealbook
 
Labor Market Converging More Rapidly Than Expected Toward Fed’s Objectives
Wall Street Journal
The Wall Street Journal’s Daily Report on Global Central Banks for Wednesday, July 9, 2014. Jon Hilsenrath writes about how an improving job market may affect the Fed’s interest rate plans.
shared by @firstadopter, @IvanTheK, @munilass
 
Born in 1988. Sorry
Bloomberg View
Being born 20 years before a recession can lower your income and affect your health and happiness for life.
shared by Abnormal Returns, @MarkThoma, @TimOBrien, @CMEGroup
 
High Asset Prices, the Savings Glut, Secular Stagnation, and Unemployment
cepr.net
The idea that the economy could be subject to an ongoing problem of inadequate demand used to be grounds for eviction from the realm of serious economists. But anyone who is willing to look at the evidence with a straight face really can’t escape this conclusion.
shared by @ObsoleteDogma, @MarkThoma, @UpshotNYT, @Neil_Irwin
 
GAO: U.S. corporations pay average effective tax rate of 12.6%
CNNMoney
Large, profitable U.S. corporations paid an average effective federal tax rate of 12.6% in 2010, the Government Accountability Office said Monday.
shared by @MichaelKitces, @ritholtz, reddit/Economics, @JacobWolinsky
 
One percent’s rental nightmare: How Wall Street scheme blew up in its face
salon.com
Big Money investors thought they had the perfect plan to buy up rental properties. But it turns out property management has a learning curve.
shared by @retheauditors, @cate_long, @MattGoldstein26
 
Why Dividend Payers Aren’t Boring
sl-advisors.com
Slow and steady dividends with growth may not appear that exciting, but boring is often better where you’re money’s concerned.
shared by Abnormal Returns, @ReformedBroker, Reformed Broker
 
Slow Business Start-ups and the Job Recovery
frbsf.org
Start-ups typically create jobs so fast at the beginning of recoveries that even a modest drop in that pace can affect the whole economy. In fact, slower job growth among new businesses may have resulted in 760,000 fewer jobs in the first year of the current recovery.
shared by Business Insider, @MarkThoma, reddit/Economics, @ModeledBehavior
 
Marc Faber: The asset bubble has begun to burst
CNBC
Marc Faber has long called for a correction. Now Dr. Doom is calling for a bear market.
shared by @ritholtz, Calculated Risk, @EddyElfenbein, @JeffMacke
 
Why UBS Says Brazil’s 7-1 Trouncing Is Bearish for Stocks
Bloomberg
Conventional wisdom has been that a Brazil loss at home in the World Cup would be a positive for the country’s financial markets. A defeat, the argument went, would sour the national mood and prompt voters to oust resident Dilma Rousseff, who has sunk the economy into stagflation.
shared by @EddyElfenbein, @ObsoleteDogma, @JohnLothian, Crossing Wall Street, @TimOBrien
 
The Upside of Brazil’s Defeat
Bloomberg View
Brazil’s devastating defeat in the World Cup could improve the prospects for much-needed economic reform
shared by @GTCost, @morningmoneyben, @TimOBrien
 

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