Practical analysis for investment professionals
17 April 2015

Weekend Reads for Global Investors: Oil Economics, Emerging Markets, and Some Lighter Fare

Posted In: Weekend Reads

The April issue of the McKinsey Quarterly featured an article aptly titled “Economists: Don’t Leave Home without One.” (Spoiler alert: it is written by an economist.)

The recent rise in oil prices after the sharp plunge earlier in the year seems a particularly interesting case for economists to opine on. For example, where will oil prices go from here? And how will that affect the global economy, markets, and investors’ nest eggs?

Since we highlighted the earth-shattering Saudi-led air strikes in Yemen three weeks ago, their impact is still being felt across the global financial markets. Oil prices have steadily climbed, reaching their highest mark of the year this week. Economists cannot seem to agree on their future direction though, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) vocally expressing its concerns over demand and hence price outlook.

How the global economy will perform given a drop in oil prices from previous highs is not certain either. While many hope that lower energy costs will boost corporate profits, which seems like basic Economics 101, economists at The Conference Board believe that the “Economic Benefit from Oil Profits [is] Already Played Out.”

It sure sounds like you can’t leave home with just one economist — everywhere you turn there seems to be at least two different economic perspectives. So take your time and decide which one makes more sense to you.

Fortunately, it has been mostly a quiet week, so there aren’t that many more conflicting economic views to bang our heads over. Have a great weekend, and I hope you enjoy some of the other interesting reads I have come across in recent weeks, including insights from such investment luminaries as Burton G. Malkiel.

Oil Economics

Investing 

Emerging Markets

The Environment

The Soft Side of Business

And Now for Some Reading Truly for the Weekend . . . 

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All posts are the opinion of the author. As such, they should not be construed as investment advice, nor do the opinions expressed necessarily reflect the views of CFA Institute or the author’s employer.

Image credit: ©iStockphoto.com/Christian Mueller

About the Author(s)
Larry Cao, CFA

Larry Cao, CFA, senior director of industry research, CFA Institute, conducts original research with a focus on the investment industry trends and investment expertise. His current research interests include multi-asset strategies and FinTech (including AI, big data, and blockchain). He has led the development of such popular publications as FinTech 2017: China, Asia and Beyond, FinTech 2018: The Asia Pacific Edition, Multi-Asset Strategies: The Future of Investment Management and AI Pioneers in Investment management. He is also a frequent speaker at industry conferences on these topics. During his time in Boston pursuing graduate studies at Harvard and as a visiting scholar at MIT, he also co-authored a research paper with Nobel laureate Franco Modigliani that was published in the Journal of Economic Literature by American Economic Association. Larry has more than 20 years of experience in the investment industry. Prior to joining CFA Institute, Larry worked at HSBC as senior manager for the Asia Pacific region. He started his career at the People’s Bank of China as a USD fixed-income portfolio manager. He also worked for US asset managers Munder Capital Management, managing US and international equity portfolios, and Morningstar/Ibbotson Associates, managing multi-asset investment programs for a global financial institution clientele. Larry has been interviewed by a wide range of business media, such as Bloomberg, CNN, the Financial Times, South China Morning Post and the Wall Street Journal.

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