US Federal Reserve
The yield curve is inverted, implying an imminent recession, but the stock market is at or near record highs. What can we make of these contradictory signals?
The grand monetary experiment of the last decade and a half has undermined the global financial system and necessitates a radical solution.
How have the markets responded to congressional testimony from recent Fed chairs? Have they shown a preference or distaste for any one in particular?
The predictive power of the yield curve is a widely accepted causal narrative. But the history shows that the causal correlation between long and short rates is actually quite weak.
Nearly two years into the global supply chain restructuring process, the economic data are revealing the consequences.
Is there a Fed put influencing US corporate credit markets?
Recent market volatility has been driven by speculation about what the Fed will do next.
Have the Fed's and ECB's purchases of corporate bonds permanently altered the pricing of corporate credit risk?
The impact of Fed policy on the global financial system is yet another feature of the COVID-19 pandemic that caught investors off guard.
Recession is now a virtual inevitability.