US Federal Reserve
“Most people tell me that long-run equity valuation data is meaningless," says Russell Napier. "I think they’re wrong.”
The introduction of the Skill Ratio by Daniel Blais, CFA; Brodie Gay's examination of how inflation is underreported; and an exploration by Ziad Abou Gergi, CFA, of the manager-selection process, are among the top posts from March.
Published estimates suggest inflation has been nonexistent despite extended, near-zero interest rates and a near doubling of the M2 private money supply since the recession.
Warren Buffett once said, “You only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out.” Could the tide be receding for the US economy? Ron Rimkus, CFA, explores the question.
In this reprint of a collection of lectures, the Nobel Prize–winning author expounds on regional and international regulation and monetary and fiscal policy, as well as a host of other economic topics. His insights predate but point toward the recent global financial crisis, and his guidance is timely and critical for a global economy still facing the fallout from the crisis.
Back in the 1980s, “monetary policy was a great way to stimulate the economy,” Jack Ablin, CFA, said. Not anymore.
It was just shy of two weeks since President Donald Trump’s inauguration when former US Federal Reserve chair Ben Bernanke took to the podium at the CFA Society Boston’s 31st Annual Market Dinner. His presentation covered a broad range of topics, from the current state of macroeconomics, regulation, and policy, to financial stability and the geopolitical climate at large. John Bowman, CFA, shares a few key takeaways from his speech and the subsequent question-and-answer session.
In this fascinating study of the Federal Reserve System, Peter Conti-Brown shows that much of what investors know about the formulation and implementation of US monetary policy is wrong. He also demonstrates that much of the expert commentary in the media (e.g., regarding future interest rate actions) proceeds from false premises about the central bank’s internal dynamics. Although practitioners should not accept all of Conti-Brown’s conclusions uncritically, they can assuredly profit from his debunking of conventional wisdom about a key driver of the financial markets.
The author investigates Thomas Malthus’s theories of secular stagnation and uses his findings to shed light on the sluggish growth and lethargic employment rates that have recently plagued the US economy.
In January, 70% of CFA Institute Financial NewsBrief readers didn't expect a US recession in 2016. So what about 2017?