You have probably had it up to here with polls and pundit predictions about the fast-approaching U.S. presidential race. It is hard to decipher one from the next, and what any might actually say about which candidate will ultimately prevail. So we did not even try.
Instead, our latest CFA Institute survey of U.S. members poses this simple question: Will the outcome of the election have an effect on the economy? A larger-than-expected 80% of our survey respondents say that it will have an important impact on the economy going forward. Good news for people hoping something, anything really, gets going in Washington to remedy our economic malaise.
Suffice to say, you can hardly parse that question without reflecting on which candidate might win and what effect he would have (positive or negative). Spend five minutes watching MSNBC or Fox News and you will get your fix on that score. From our standpoint, we hope the victor does not overlook the unhappy state of public trust and confidence in markets.
The other tidbit here is a continued sense globally that what happens in America will surely impact the global economy. You are familiar with the adage, “If America sneezes the rest of the global economy catches cold.” Sixty-three percent of survey respondents still see that as being the case.
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