"I don't see GDP growth running away from us," Robert S. Kaplan said. "In fact, if we don't take wise actions from a policy point of view, I actually think potential GDP is likely to trend lower over the next number of years from where it is now."
Jason Voss, CFA, shares his picks for Weekend Reads for Investors. This edition features stories about the dangers of exchange-traded funds (ETFs), a better way to think about and model the human brain, and how the notion of superhuman artificial intelligence (AI) is farfetched.
In a sweeping survey of the financial crises that shook East Asia and other developing countries, the author explores the compatibility of emerging market economies with inherently volatile global financial markets.
It was just shy of two weeks since President Donald Trump’s inauguration when former US Federal Reserve chair Ben Bernanke took to the podium at the CFA Society Boston’s 31st Annual Market Dinner. His presentation covered a broad range of topics, from the current state of macroeconomics, regulation, and policy, to financial stability and the geopolitical climate at large. John Bowman, CFA, shares a few key takeaways from his speech and the subsequent question-and-answer session.
In this fascinating study of the Federal Reserve System, Peter Conti-Brown shows that much of what investors know about the formulation and implementation of US monetary policy is wrong. He also demonstrates that much of the expert commentary in the media (e.g., regarding future interest rate actions) proceeds from false premises about the central bank’s internal dynamics. Although practitioners should not accept all of Conti-Brown’s conclusions uncritically, they can assuredly profit from his debunking of conventional wisdom about a key driver of the financial markets.
Think about the markets since the financial crisis. What has defined the era? Two words: monetary policy. Central banks — more than economic growth or any other factor — are what have moved the markets. But that may be changing.
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