History & Geopolitics

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Unknown Unknowns in Investing

W. Bradford McMillan, CFA, CAIA

When I was asked, “What do you believe but can’t prove in investing?” the Donald Rumsfeld quote about knowns, known unknowns, and unknown unknowns came to mind. Where in that context do unprovable beliefs fit? My first thought is that they’re known unknowns. If we have an unprovable belief, then we have a strong opinion that could be wrong, which would seem to place us squarely in the known unknowns.
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